C. Wiebes - Intelligence en de oorlog in Bosnië 1992-1995. De rol van de inlichtingen- en veiligheidsdiensten - Engels

280Very little is known of the technical operation and capabilities of Imint satellites, but someinformation can be gleaned from interviews with intelligence experts who had access to Imint. Onaverage, the satellites fitted with pivotal cameras can cross a region once or twice a day. Making zigzagmovements, they photograph swathes of territory, sometimes with a width of as much as 40 kilometres.The cameras take raster images (similar to those on a television or computer screen) made up of pixels(tiny points). Each pixel forms part of the overall image. If the satellite has a resolution of one metre,then each pixel represents a diameter of one metre. This means that objects of one metre or larger canbe observed. The lower the resolution of the satellite photo, the easier it is for the Imint analyst todetect small objects. These pixels are relayed to Earth and, with the aid of the reflected radar beam, theanalyst can precisely determine the height of buildings, installations and other objects.He or she can also determine with a reasonable degree of accuracy whether a pit has been dug at aspecific location for an execution and filled up again later as loose earth holds the radar beam slightlylonger than compact earth. This brief absorption is enough to indicate whether the soil has been disturbed.Also, interred bodies cause a difference in ground temperature that can be picked up by infra-red sensors.This is how satellites discovered disturbed soil along a road near Srebrenica, which later turned out tocontain a mass grave. Other locations identified in the same way, incidentally, later turned out (through airand ground inspections) to be loading sites for timber transport. 1486For many years the resolution of the cameras was around one metre. Stories that circulated around1995 about photographs of number plates or matchboxes were myths which were kept alive to mislead theenemy. This has all changed by 2002: even commercial satellites can now produce photos with a resolutionof about 6 inches. 1487 People with daily access to US satellite images say that car number plates can nowbe distinguished without too much effort. 1488 The new generation of US satellites will be much smallerin size and will soon be able to produce photos with a resolution almost ten times better than theresolution of the photos taken by commercial satellites. These new satellites will be capable ofdelivering real-time images to US ground commanders anywhere in the world. 1489 The extensive andnear-real-time capacity of US satellites can be inferred from the current generation of commercial satellites.These circle the earth at an altitude of around 700 kilometres, moving in a zigzag pattern that enables themto look 350 kilometres to the left and right. Images from these satellites are available within 18 minutes. Itcan safely be assumed that in 2003 the US satellites perform far better than in 1995. 1490Could satellites ‘see’ the executions?Imint experts have offered explanations for the failure of the satellites to photograph the summaryexecutions of the Bosnian Muslims. Before a satellite could have recorded these images a lot needed tohave happened under truly ideal circumstances. Normally, a satellite crosses an area (like Srebrenica) onceor twice a day. As the demand for Imint is enormous, it is impossible to assign the satellites extra tasksabove the region. There are geo-stationary satellites with a fixed position in relation to the earth but theseare only used for Sigint, Elint and early warning systems for observing rocket launches.Srebrenica was simply in too low a position on the list of priorities. But even if it had had higherpriority and more Imint tools had been deployed, it would still be debatable whether the executionswould have been discovered sooner. One Imint expert illustrated this point by offering the followingcalculation. If four satellites above the region were to circle the enclave four times a day, this wouldresult in 16 sweeps for each video camera. If each sweep lasted 10 minutes, this would produce 160minutes of footage of Srebrenica. Only some of this would be taken in daylight: in the summer this1486 Confidential interviews (13), (47), (54) and (62).1487 See for example: www.globexplorer.com/imgallery/image1488 Confidential interview (62).1489 Joseph Fitchett, ‘spying From Space: U.S. to Sharpen the Focus’, International Herald Tribune, 10/04/01.1490 Mark Stout and Thomas Quiggin, ‘Exploiting the new high resolution satellite imagery: Darwinian imperatives?’,Commentary, (1998) 75, pp. 3-4.