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C. Wiebes - Intelligence en de oorlog in Bosnië 1992-1995. De rol van de inlichtingen- en veiligheidsdiensten - Engels

C. Wiebes - Intelligence en de oorlog in Bosnië 1992-1995. De rol van de inlichtingen- en veiligheidsdiensten - Engels

C. Wiebes - Intelligence en de oorlog in Bosnië 1992-1995. De rol van de inlichtingen- en veiligheidsdiensten - Engels

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311solution to such problems <strong>in</strong> ad hoc peacekeep<strong>in</strong>g operations, where the communication l<strong>in</strong>es areshorter. 1713It also must be stated that the Dutch Governm<strong>en</strong>t was not properly briefed on Im<strong>in</strong>t. AnAmerican memorandum, which was drawn up for The Hague <strong>in</strong> response to questions posed by theDutch, proved to conta<strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong>correct statem<strong>en</strong>ts. The memorandum stated that there ‘was no usablecoverage, however, betwe<strong>en</strong> 13 and 27 July, because of bad weather or poor image quality - thepr<strong>in</strong>cipal factors affect<strong>in</strong>g whether we have coverage’. 1714 This was factually untrue: there was certa<strong>in</strong>ly‘usable coverage’. On 15 July, a Predator flew to Eastern Bosnia with the primary mission: ‘Bratunacmales: key priority’. The quality of the subsequ<strong>en</strong>t vi<strong>de</strong>o was disappo<strong>in</strong>t<strong>in</strong>g, but other Im<strong>in</strong>t wasavailable: on 17 July, a U-2 flew over Branjevo farm at Donja Pilica, the sc<strong>en</strong>e of countless executions.A – rather blurred – photo of people who were executed shortly afterwards was released later by noneother than the US Adm<strong>in</strong>istration. 1715 The NIOD was ev<strong>en</strong> shown far sharper photos of the sametarget, which clearly showed a larger and a smaller group of bodies and lorry tracks and digg<strong>in</strong>goperations. 1716 Similar but less sharp photos were later giv<strong>en</strong> to the Yugoslavia Tribunal for use at thetrial of G<strong>en</strong>eral Krstic. 1717At 18.12 hours on 18 July, Im<strong>in</strong>t on Srebr<strong>en</strong>ica was aga<strong>in</strong> available with<strong>in</strong> the US <strong>in</strong>tellig<strong>en</strong>cecommunity. An asset had id<strong>en</strong>tified two tanks outsi<strong>de</strong> the headquarters <strong>in</strong> Potocari. U-2 photos alsoshowed an APC <strong>in</strong> Glogova. The availability of US Im<strong>in</strong>t came to light <strong>in</strong> Belgra<strong>de</strong> on 15 July dur<strong>in</strong>gthe negotiations with Milosevic and Mladic on Srebr<strong>en</strong>ica. American Im<strong>in</strong>t was ly<strong>in</strong>g on the table.Accord<strong>in</strong>g to an <strong>in</strong>tellig<strong>en</strong>ce analyst with access to Im<strong>in</strong>t, Sat<strong>in</strong>t of Srebr<strong>en</strong>ica and the surround<strong>in</strong>gswere already available on 19 July. 1718 <strong>De</strong>spite all of this, there was probably no conscious attempt tomislead: the American memorandum with the answers to the questions asked by the Dutch <strong>in</strong> whichrefer<strong>en</strong>ce was ma<strong>de</strong> to these photos is dated 24 August <strong>1995.</strong> At that time, the US community still didnot have full <strong>in</strong>sight <strong>in</strong>to and access to all the Im<strong>in</strong>t on the ev<strong>en</strong>ts around Srebr<strong>en</strong>ica. The DutchGovernm<strong>en</strong>t was therefore not <strong>in</strong>correctly <strong>in</strong>formed, but the US memorandum was certa<strong>in</strong>lypremature.F<strong>in</strong>ally, a word about the Dutch <strong>in</strong>tellig<strong>en</strong>ce community and Air Force could have played <strong>in</strong> thisrespect. It is of course also a bit ‘easy’ to blame the US <strong>in</strong>tellig<strong>en</strong>ce community for conceivableshortcom<strong>in</strong>gs. It is also not true that the Dutch were totally <strong>de</strong>p<strong>en</strong>d<strong>en</strong>t on other sources for their Im<strong>in</strong>t.As said earlier, the Dutch had excell<strong>en</strong>t TACRECCE capabilities <strong>in</strong> the area. However, the last flight ofthe 306 th Squadron (mission 1357) of the Royal Dutch Airforce, which was stationed <strong>in</strong> Villafranca and<strong>in</strong> charge of photo reconnaissance missions above Bosnia, dates from 27 May <strong>1995.</strong> The activities onthe western si<strong>de</strong> were more or less stopped after the American F-16 of Scott O’Grady was shot down.In fact, no reconnaissance flights were carried out at all betwe<strong>en</strong> 11 and 30 June. Appar<strong>en</strong>tly, it wasconsi<strong>de</strong>red too dangerous to operate after this date, giv<strong>en</strong> the mount<strong>in</strong>g threat from the Bosnian-Serbanti-aircraft guns.As said earlier <strong>in</strong> this study. In brief, there were no additional <strong>en</strong>hancem<strong>en</strong>ts <strong>in</strong> the area of<strong>in</strong>tellig<strong>en</strong>ce; neither Parliam<strong>en</strong>t nor the M<strong>in</strong>istry of <strong>De</strong>f<strong>en</strong>ce nor the Cab<strong>in</strong>et <strong>in</strong>sisted on it. However, the306 th Squadron of the Royal Dutch Airforce could have provi<strong>de</strong>d the Dutch with an uniqueopportunity. One of the best, if not the very best Im<strong>in</strong>t asset <strong>in</strong> the theatre was the Dutch RF-16TACRECCE capability. It was newer, more flexible and better technology than any other TACRECCEsystem <strong>in</strong> the theatre. It can provi<strong>de</strong> better resolution, more flexible coverage and offset the effects offoul weather better than any satellite. Unlike the UAV, it has a man on-sc<strong>en</strong>e, at the cont<strong>rol</strong>s, with a full1713 Mark Stout and Thomas Quigg<strong>in</strong>, ‘Exploit<strong>in</strong>g the new high resolution satellite imagery: Darw<strong>in</strong>ian imperatives?,Comm<strong>en</strong>tary, No. 75 (Summer 1998), pp. 5 - 10.1714 MoD, DCBC, box 61, No. 2850, American memorandum, 24/08/95.1715 For the photos: www.fas.org.irp/Im<strong>in</strong>t/bosnia16.html1716 Confid<strong>en</strong>tial <strong>in</strong>terview (7). Dur<strong>in</strong>g this <strong>in</strong>terview classified U-2 photos could be studied.1717 See: ICTY, Krstic Case, OTP Exhibits, Volume II, Ex. 24/2-24/3.1718 Confid<strong>en</strong>tial <strong>in</strong>terview (54).

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