C. Wiebes - Intelligence en de oorlog in Bosnië 1992-1995. De rol van de inlichtingen- en veiligheidsdiensten - Engels

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372enclave did not fall due to lack of intelligence, but due to the unwillingness of the internationalcommunity to do anything else than accept a fait accompli. 2094The intelligence failure described throughout this work made clear that there was no effectivewarning, except of the most general sort provided to commanders and policymakers, at virtually anylevel or nationality. The issue of a duty to provide warning becomes the next question. The author isnot aware of any treaty, or a bilateral or multilateral agreement that definitively obligates any of theallied forces operating in Bosnia to provide intelligence of the sort involved here to the UN or theDutch in particular. Even under the NATO Treaty, a member nation is not obligated to come to theaid of any other member if an attack occurs, rather, a member need take only ‘such action as it deemsnecessary’ to restore and maintain the security of NATO. All NATO intelligence sharing in voluntaryand NATO members need share only that intelligence which they choose. There is no obligation to doso.However, it should also be stated that this intelligence failure occurred within the context of amassive operational and policy failure by the UN, which placed civilians and soldiers in an impossiblyindefensible position with full knowledge of its tenuous character. To lose sight of the monumentaloperational failure by focusing exclusively on the equally substantial intelligence failure is to doomoneself to repetition. The intelligence failure was of several days or even weeks duration, but the policyfailure was systematically ignored for years at a variety of UN and national levels. The unsupportableoperational posture at Srebrenica, and the decision by key policy-makers in the UN, and variouswestern nations to ignore the volatile potential is directly connected to the lack of intelligence focus onthe potential for a VRS effort to collapse the enclave. Intelligence assets are nearly always focused oncollection issues as directed by the policymakers. It were those policymakers at the UN and nationallevels who chose to turn a blind eye to the desperate situation in the eastern enclaves. And as a result,the limited intelligence assets committed to the Balkans were much more rigorously applied to otherproblems where production was more fruitful and more central to the vital national interestsrepresented. The enclaves in Bosnia fell off the collection priority list of a dozen countries when thoselimited collection assets were committed against the numerous intelligence problems elsewhere in theBalkans.It can also be concluded from the above that if no structural intelligence gathering andintelligence activities take place, or if crucial decisions are taken only at a very late stage, thenintelligence has only limited significance. But since the international community continued to hold theview that the Bosnian Serbs would ignore political pressure, this should clearly have led to greateralertness and should have been a signal to strengthen intelligence gathering. The same argument appliesto the fact that UNPROFOR knew that Mladic was seriously short of troops for meeting the Bosnianoffensive elsewhere in Bosnia and the Croatian operations in the KrajinaIn the case of a good follow-up by UNPROFOR, it is possible that the southern part of theenclave would not have been attacked and that the rest of the enclave would therefore also have beenspared. Perhaps the rapid collapse of the ABiH could have been prevented if it had been decided earlierto return the still serviceable heavy weapons at the Weapon Collection Point in Srebrenica to the ABiH,if agreements had been made about the joint defence of the enclave, and if Close Air Support had beendeployed faster and more effectively. Although the first measures would have been at odds with themandate of Dutchbat, this aspect should have been tolerated in view of the emergency at hand. Thisremains speculation of course but since it is now evident that none of those involved had priorknowledge of the assault, a ‘proper’ response was ruled out right from the start. In this respectSrebrenica was an intelligence failure.2094 United Nations, Srebrenica Report, § 487, p. 143.
373Chapter 9Survey of archival recordsIntroductionA large number of records and collections of documents were consulted for the Srebrenica inquiry andthis study. Private organizations and individuals also made documents available. It is a generallyaccepted rule that the curator, manager or owner of such archives or documents must give permissionfor third parties to consult them. This usually means, certainly in the case of all documents belonging togovernment agencies and international organizations, that applications have to be submitted to thebodies concerned in order to inspect the material. In several cases the institutions or individualsinvolved gave the Netherlands Institute for War Documentation (NIOD) permission to have thirdparties inspect the documents (originals or copies). In such cases the NIOD was obliged to checkwhether there were any restrictions on making the documents public by virtue of the Freedom ofInformation Act, the Personal Data Protection Act and the Public Records Act. It is possible that as aresult of these Acts certain data and/or names of individuals must be made illegible. Below a survey isprovided of the records, collections and separate documents consulted, with mention of theabbreviations used in the report. The aim of this survey is to provide insight into the archives, whichwere consulted for the purposes of this study. Important archives consulted in the Netherlands for thisstudy were those of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defence. All other Dutch andforeign archives and private collections have been brought together in a section: other archives andcollections.Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs archives (NMFA)1. Cabinet archives, strictly confidential codes, Red telegrams.2. Documentary Information Service (Dutch DDI)3. European Department (DEU)4. Political UN Affairs (DPV)5. Atlantic Security Department (DAV)6. Archives of the UN Permanent Representation in New York7. Archives of the Netherlands embassy in Washington.8. Archives of the Canadian embassy in Washington.Collection Hattinga van ‘t SantWorking archive of the Deputy Director of the Europe departmentThe Netherlands Ministry of Defence archives (MOD)The archives present at the Ministry of Defence on the subject of the Dutch mission in Srebrenica, itsbackground and its consequences fill more than one hundred metres of shelf space. The study of thearchives focused mainly on the period from 1993 to 1996, but in connection with the run-up to theDutch military involvement in the former Yugoslavia and the aftermath of the fall of Srebrenica, it alsoextended to 1992 and 1997.1. Department of the junior minister of Defence.2. Secretary-General’s Department.3. Defence Staff.4. Defence Crisis Management Centre (DCBC).5. Directorate for General Policy.
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Srebrenica: a ‘safe’ areaAppend
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CIC - Current Intelligence CentreCI
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7SCS - Special Collection ServiceSE
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9still active staff of intelligence
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11Chapter 1The United Nations and I
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13with setting the objectives of gr
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15gathered, organized and analysed
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17The second phase in the intellige
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19can also be or become intelligenc
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21additional financial and other in
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23undermined the idea that the inte
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25that the safety of their personne
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27to generate an all-source perspec
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29in all, Van Kappen found it a ‘
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31The first step taken by the Bush
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33Virginia, where it was decided wh
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35a dual responsibility to support
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37had indications that this attack
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39example, the following is contain
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41played an important role. For thi
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43any indication of action taken. T
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45verification flights by unmanned
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47NATO’s most important troop-con
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49strategic systems were revamped t
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51Another problem was that good (no
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53American National Reconnaissance
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55Soviet Union’s intercontinental
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574. The perception and information
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59not detract from the fact that
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62intelligence officers even told t
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64the mandate differently or which
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67atrocities but the Bosnian Serbs
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70Republika Srpska. The work was no
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72from the fact that the Direction
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74involved in intelligence activiti
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76Forces were said to have received
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78exchange, then generally speaking
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80Chapter 3Dutch intelligence and s
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82reorganization of the MIS. In 199
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84commotion flaring up within the s
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86intelligence. 394 Until that time
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88their relief goods for Bosnia tha
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90The BVD collaborated closely on Y
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94cutbacks recommended by the Van I
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97information without compromising
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99Yugoslavia did not prove to be a
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101MIS/CO. Intelligence sharing wit
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103German, Italian and Danish intel
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105Originally, the European Bureau
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107that an insight was obtained usi
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109They made civil and military ris
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111In other words, the flow of info
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113three tasks: looking for indicat
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115In reality the MIS/Army function
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117his benefit, and many others. It
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119too. This had already been estab
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121negative assessment: not to go t
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123capacity of the UN, but as descr
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125organizations that could possibl
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127Department, the Counterintellige
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129MIS/Air Force officer went to Tu
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131entering into close relationship
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133One envelope contained several f
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135any indications of continuous gu
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137more and more clear, turned a de
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139intended to monitor the border c
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141opinion. 665 After Croatia had n
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143Lake’s statement. 676 As a Can
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145engage these countries, but each
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147Later that day, Galbraith report
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149form of photos taken by spy sate
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151In the summer and autumn of 1994
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153starting to have concerns about
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155preferred provider of weapons to
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157Because of the logistical useful
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159An Islamic humanitarian organiza
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161and 1 rocket launcher for a TF-8
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163the convoys from Croatia with ar
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165The attempt at a cover-upAs ment
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167Force Commander and with General
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169urging it, because they suspecte
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171General and researcher, Brendan
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173mm guns, 2000 pistols, 211,000 h
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175divergent opinions on the Serbia
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177had total freedom of movement al
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179violations were observed. These
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181and Jugoslavija Publik. Accordin
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183command and the rival Iranian, S
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185much contact with the population
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187from the enclave a total of 140
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189The third party country strategy
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191the warring factions, namely tha
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193Chapter 5The Signals Intelligenc
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195In addition Comint can be import
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197policymakers, however. As a resu
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199A second disadvantage of Sigint,
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201All efforts can of course also b
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203125 linguists to provide transla
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205time intercepts involved here we
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207conclusion that the contribution
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209happened during the Gulf War, wh
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211The Gulf War showed that there w
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213Despite this reservation there i
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215The NSA and CIA, as well as GCHQ
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217million messages, sent via Intel
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219Zagreb, Morgan, - Svensson was o
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221Monitoring targets in SerbiaOffi
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223jar’, said an US intelligence
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225Naturally the Serbs had taken pr
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227confirmed that monitoring walkie
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229The same month new articles appe
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231‘They more or less admitted th
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233have been part of a Bosnian gove
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235get O’Grady out of Bosnian Ser
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237as the Balkans. Two to three yea
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239Comint archive and other archive
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241Bokhoven Couzy supported him in
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243communications traffic of UNPROF
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245Moreover, the NSA is reported to
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247The role of the Netherlands: no
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249made by Krstic and other Bosnian
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251messages, which were intercepted
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253later treetops were used. Throug
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255Conclusions on the interception
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257equipment, planned operations, t
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259made it impossible to follow the
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261community that the situation was
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263commander of the Bosnian-Serb Dr
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265to headquarters. The Comint oper
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267Intelligence Community had no ac
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269aid being sent to Sarajevo. Both
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271established in 1991, also receiv
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273crypto telephone and fax with th
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275to Baxter, the Military Assistan
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277Chapter 7Imagery Intelligence in
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2792. What instruments were availab
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281would leave around 18 hours out
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283and has provided policy-makers w
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285operational in Bosnia, like the
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287lines and troop movements. After
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289around Sarajevo and Gorazde. Thi
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291that especially American, French
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293So, it would have been impossibl
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2953. With whom was imagery intelli
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297available. 1606 The head of the
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299war crimes had probably been per
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301a US national asset (unknow is w
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303Mostar and loitered in Zepa area
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305Albright shows the photosOn 10 A
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307was taken some time in 1999, eve
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309tracking the civilian toll had v
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311solution to such problems in ad
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313Chapter 8Was ‘Srebrenica’ an
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315gathered intelligence, then it m
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317the VRS attack should aim to tak
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319In January 1995 a European intel
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Page 323 and 324: 323The Military Intelligence Servic
Page 325 and 326: 325by the Norwegian Brigadier Gener
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Page 329 and 330: 329the enclaves in the very near fu
Page 331 and 332: 331enclave was seriously confined b
Page 333 and 334: 333The VRS’s most important commu
Page 335 and 336: 335archives, together with intervie
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Page 341 and 342: 341The UN headquarters in New YorkT
Page 343 and 344: 343Who did have prior knowledge? In
Page 345 and 346: 345offensive was stopped before the
Page 347 and 348: 347leadership of the Republika Srps
Page 349 and 350: 349coming 24 hours. 1963 On 11 July
Page 351 and 352: 351that it was established that the
Page 353 and 354: 353very short period: 2 to 6 July.
Page 355 and 356: 355transport VRS troops. 2006 Howev
Page 357 and 358: 357In this respect the author Russe
Page 359 and 360: 359(presumably they were referring
Page 361 and 362: 361nations and within NATO never to
Page 363 and 364: 363expectation that ‘on balance i
Page 365 and 366: 365thorny issue. A foreign intellig
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Page 369 and 370: 369believes any news in Sarajevo.
Page 371: 371as said before, this is not a na
Page 375 and 376: 375Collection of the Economic Inves
Page 377 and 378: 377archive a number of messages fro
Page 379 and 380: 37930. Uiterweer Post Collection: n
Page 381 and 382: Bodansky, Y., Offensive in the Balk
Page 383 and 384: Halberstam, David, War in a Time of
Page 385 and 386: O.O’shea, Brendan, Crisis at Biha
Page 387 and 388: 387Woolsey, R.J., Partners for Peac
Page 389 and 390: Boyle, Alan, ‘spies in the watch
Page 391 and 392: Macdonald, Lt.-Colonel Oliver A.K.,
Page 393 and 394: 393Zumach, A. ‘US intelligence kn
Page 395 and 396: Arafat YasserAristide J.B.‘Arkan
Page 397 and 398: Felix M.C.J.Franken R.A.Franssen N.
Page 399 and 400: Makar AndjelkoMarchal LucMarguin J.
Page 401 and 402: Soljic VladimirSoubirou AndréSoyst
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C. Wiebes - Intelligence en de oorlog in Bosnië 1992-1995. De rol van de inlichtingen- en veiligheidsdiensten - Engels

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