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annotated bibliography of fisheries economics literature - Office of ...

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Gu, Guang and James L. Anderson (1995). "Deseasonalized State-Space<br />

Time Series Forecasting with Application to the U.S. Salmon<br />

Market." Marine Resource Economics, 10(2):171-185.<br />

An approach that combines seasonality removal with a multivariate,<br />

state-space, time series forecasting model is developed to provide short run<br />

forecasts for the U.S. salmon market. Time series included in the model are:<br />

U.S. fresh Atlantic salmon wholesale price index; fresh salmon (Atlantic,<br />

coho, and chinook) monthly U.S. import quantities and prices; and U.S. chum<br />

and sockeye salmon monthly export prices. Four versions <strong>of</strong> the state-space<br />

forecasting model are compared in terms <strong>of</strong> their statistical performance<br />

during out <strong>of</strong> sample forecasts. Out <strong>of</strong> sample 3, 6, and 12 month ahead<br />

directional predictions are generated to test the models' performance in terms<br />

<strong>of</strong> direction. Under identical modeling conditions, out <strong>of</strong> sample statistical<br />

and directional tests indicate that deseasonalization improves the overall<br />

performance <strong>of</strong> the state-space model. As a result, a linear, deseasonalized,<br />

state-space forecasting model is selected to provide twelve monthly out <strong>of</strong><br />

sample forecasts for all series.<br />

Gugliotta, Guy (1997). Fight Over Quotas Roils the Top <strong>of</strong> Food Chain. <br />

Washington Post, Tuesday, June 3, page A17.<br />

Newspaper article on the impact <strong>of</strong> a fifty percent reduction in total<br />

allowable catch on the shark fishing fleet.<br />

Guilkey, David K., C.A. Knox Lovell, and Robin C. Sickles (1983). "A<br />

Comparison <strong>of</strong> the Performance <strong>of</strong> Three Flexible Functional Forms."<br />

International Economic Review, 24(3):591-616.<br />

This study continues and broadens the line <strong>of</strong> attack initiated by Wales<br />

(1977) who used Monte Carlo techniques in a effort to determine the range <strong>of</strong><br />

data points over which translog and generalized Leontief forms provided<br />

acceptable approximations to a two input linearly homogeneous CES technology.<br />

At issue is the ability <strong>of</strong> estimating models derived from three flexible<br />

functional forms to track a known technology over a range <strong>of</strong> observations.<br />

The three flexible forms we consider are the translog, the generalized<br />

Leontief, and the generalized Cobb-Douglas. The Monte Carlo experiments we<br />

conduct are based on a known technology whose complexity (i.e., scale and<br />

substitution structure) is permitted to vary across experiments, and on a data<br />

base whose characteristics (i.e., range and correlation) are held fixed across<br />

experiments.<br />

Gulf and South Atlantic Fisheries Development Foundation, Inc. (1988).<br />

"Seafood from the Gulf and South Atlantic States." Gulf and South<br />

Atlantic Fisheries Development Foundation, Inc., Lincoln Center,<br />

Suite 669, 5401 West Kennedy Boulevard, Tampa, Florida, November,<br />

27 pp.<br />

This packet <strong>of</strong> material provides facts and figures about the 1987<br />

seafood products <strong>of</strong> the Gulf and south Atlantic states <strong>of</strong> Virginia, North<br />

Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana,<br />

and Texas. This is an updated version <strong>of</strong> a packet originally based on 1984<br />

data. To identify trends, the 1984 data is frequently referenced after<br />

providing the 1987 data. Data on landings and value <strong>of</strong> catch, their relation<br />

to the U.S. total, unique attributes <strong>of</strong> the region's species, the impact they<br />

contribute to the nation's economy, and a discussion <strong>of</strong> the people producing<br />

the products and the gear they use is included in the first section. Also<br />

included is an overview <strong>of</strong> present and projected seafood consumption. This is<br />

followed by a summary <strong>of</strong> the importance and characteristics <strong>of</strong> the seafood<br />

2 5 6

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