annotated bibliography of fisheries economics literature - Office of ...

Linder, Ernst, G.P. Patil, and Douglas S. Vaughan (1986). "Application
of Event Tree Risk Analysis to Fisheries Management." Technical
Report Number 86-1205, Technical Reports and Reprints Series,
Center for Statistical Ecology and Environmental Statistics,
Department of Statistics, Pennsylvania State University,
University Park, PA, December, 27 pp.
Risk analysis can be defined as the evaluation of the probability of end
events interpreted in terms of sequences of earlier events. In fisheries
science, stock assessment provides future projections on which management
decisions can be based. Uncertainties in estimating input parameters for such
projections are considerable.
For the assessment problem, we propose an event tree analysis that
couches the uncertainty of projections in terms of relative risk associated
with various management options. As an illustration, we rephrase the stock
assessment advice given in 1980 for the Georges Bank haddock stock
(Melanogrammus aiglefinus l.) in the framework of event tree analysis. This
method is also examined for a second species: the Gulf of Mexico menhaden
(Brevoortia patronus). We also evaluate the results and their sensitivity
relative to choices of end events.
Lipton, Douglas W. (198?). "U.S. Shrimp Market for Domestic Production
and Imports." Chapter III of a draft report.
A review of trends in commercial landings, imports, and aquaculture
affecting the domestic market for shrimp.
Lipton, Douglas W. (1986). "The Resurgence of the U.S. Swordfish
Market." National Economics Program, Office of Data and
Information Management, National Marine Fisheries Service,
Washington, D.C., August, 12 pp.
This study is an attempt to explain the large increase in U.S. swordfish
imports in 1985 and 1986, and to project changes in the swordfish market to
1995. An historical review of the swordfish markets shows that prior to 1971,
the swordfish market depended mainly on imports. In 1971, high concentrations
of mercury were discovered in swordfish. This led to Food and Drug
Administration (FDA) inspection and potential seizure of swordfish that is
imported or transported across state lines. FDA inspection requirements and
the negative consumer response resulted in a almost complete collapse of the
swordfish market. However, enough swordfish demand remained so that the price
of swordfish landed and marketed in the same state rose substantially after
1971. The high ex-vessel price stimulated the expansion of the domestic
swordfish fishery, as imports remained minimal until 1980. From 1981 to
present, swordfish demand has continued to grow from increased consumer
incomes and also from the fact that consumers have appeared to forget about
the high mercury concentrations discovered in 1971. In 1985, imports surged
to a level slightly higher than the level in 1970 and appear to be even higher
in 1986. This recent increase in imports and the continued high level of U.S.
landings is being sustained by a new surge in consumer demand for high value
fishery products. Projections to the year 1995 indicate that the U.S.
swordfish market will continue to grow as consumer incomes and the population
increase. As U.S. landings level out, the continued growth in the market will
be met by increased imports.
Lipton, Douglas W. (1986). "The Resurgence of the U.S. Swordfish
Market." Marine Fisheries Review, 48(3):24-27.
This paper will attempt to explain the current trends in the U.S.
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