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Assoc Prof Erkin EkremHacettepe University Department of HistoryTranslated from Turkish by Yusuf Baybars OncuThe Future of East Turkistan: An Evaluationthrough the SWOT Analysis MethodThe future of East Turkistan relies on the policies that are implemented by theChinese government in the region and on the independence movements of theso-called Pro-East Turkistan activists (Dong-tu). It also depends on the idealisticprograms formulated by the activists who are struggling for the independence ofEast Turkistan. In addition, this future is also related to the emergence of Chinaand the global policies which China pursues, as well as the international balancein politics, economy and security. Most importantly, the future of this region isconnected to the foresight of the groups who are working for the cause of EastTurkistan.A. The East Turkistan issueThe Chinese government claims that throughout history East Turkistan hasalways been a part of China. Moreover, the Chinese government declares thatwithin the international political system East Turkistan is recognized as fallingwithin the territory of China. Therefore, they claim that the East Turkistan issue isa domestic Chinese affair and China objects to any foreign involvement or interestin this affair. China annexed East Turkistan for the first time as a province that waspart of her territory in 1884. Today, the Chinese government claims that Chinatook East Turkistan under her hegemony as the legitimate heir to the ManchuEmpire (1644-1911) and the Nationalist Chinese Government (Governmentof Kuo-Min Tang, 1911-1949). However, East Turkistan was occupied by theChinese People’s Freedom Army under the provocation and with the militaryaid of Joseph Stalin, the leader of the Soviet Union, in September 1949. Theword “occupation” (zhanling) can be clearly read in the telegram communicationbetween Mao Zedong, the leader of the Chinese Communist Party, and Stalin. 1The reason why the Soviet Leader provided military support for the occupation561

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