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The Future of East Turkistan: An Evaluation through the SWOT Analysis Method / Assoc Prof Erkin Ekremthe Chinese region that has the greatest number of borders with foreign countries.To the north are the Altai Mountains, the Tien Shan Mountains are in the centerand Kunglung Mountain is to the south. These three mountains intersect at thePamir Mountains, forming a natural barrier; there are thirteen strategic passes tothe north, west and south of East Turkistan. This strategic location enhances theability of East Turkistan to defend and attack. In other words, this area ensuresthe security along the northwestern border of China. In this sense, China candominate the whole of Central Asia by holding onto East Turkistan; in the sameway, any power that holds East Turkistan can also threaten the security of China,which would remain defenseless without this region.East Turkistan has always been regarded as a passage and security zonefor China. General Gao Xianzhi of the Tang Dynasty and General Zhao-huiof the Manchu Empire took control of the region when carrying out attackstowards Central Asia. Genghis Khan also conquered the region, passing throughthe mountains to the north of East Turkistan. In this context, East Turkistancan form a strategic point from which to conquer Central Asia. General ZuoZongtang of the Manchu Empire, which occupied East Turkistan and laid thefoundations for the Xinjiang Administrative Region, expressed the importance ofthe occupation of the region as follows: “Therefore, holding Xinjiang means theprotection of Mongolia; holding Mongolia means the protection of the CapitalCity. The North-West Region is a complete defense line (for China), like a wristand fingers -with no interruption. If Xinjiang is lost, the security of Mongoliawill be under threat. Then China will not be able to sleep for a single day incomfort.” (Tongchou Xinjiang Quanju Shu, 1878). As a matter of fact, in Chinesehistory, China has been strong when she has dominated East Turkistan and hasbeen weak when she lost it. If China loses East Turkistan, she will also lose herinfluence on the geography that stretches from Central Asia to the Middle Eastand it will provide a strategic region for foreign powers in a march against China. 64. Another strong point is the ethnic and religious ties of East Turkistanwith the Turkic and Muslim world. Most of the neighbors of East Turkistan areMuslim and Turkic. Some of them are ethnic groups who share a common historyand culture with East Turkistan. Some of the people in the region live on the otherside of the border, this means that same peoples live on both sides of the border.Although the political administration of East Turkistan is affiliated to Beijing,567

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