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GUIDE TO THE PHILOSOPHY 1938 - 1947.pdf - Rare Books at ...

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7l6 ETHICI AND POLITICS: THB MODERNS<br />

gets the victory. In reading Trotsky's account of the Russian<br />

Revolution, it is difficult to believe th<strong>at</strong> Lenin made<br />

no difference, but it was touch and go whether the German<br />

Government allowed him to get to Russia. If the<br />

minister concerned had happened to be suffering from dyspepsia<br />

on a certain morning, he might have said 'No*<br />

when in fact he said 'Yes', and I do not think it can be<br />

r<strong>at</strong>ionally maintained th<strong>at</strong> without Lenin the Russian<br />

Revolution would have achieved wh<strong>at</strong> it did. To take<br />

another instance: if the Prussians had happened to have<br />

a good General <strong>at</strong> the b<strong>at</strong>tle of Valmy, they might have<br />

wiped out the French Revolution. To take an even more<br />

fantastic example, it may be maintained quite plausibly<br />

th<strong>at</strong> ifHenry VIII had not fallen in love with Anne Boleyn,<br />

the United St<strong>at</strong>es would not now exist For it was owing to<br />

this event th<strong>at</strong> England broke with the Papacy, and<br />

of the Ameri-<br />

therefore did not acknowledge the Pope's gift<br />

cas to Spain and Portugal. If England had remained<br />

C<strong>at</strong>holic, it is probable th<strong>at</strong> wh<strong>at</strong> is now the United St<strong>at</strong>es<br />

would have been part of Spanish America."<br />

THB ELEMENT OF TRUTH IN THB REALIST<br />

<strong>THE</strong>ORY OP HIS<strong>TO</strong>RY. This is not to suggest th<strong>at</strong><br />

the influence of social and economic environment upon the<br />

course ofhistory is not important On the contrary, the process<br />

of events is in the main determined not by human<br />

will and intention, but by laws which are themselves the<br />

determiners of human will and intention. In his auto-<br />

biography John Stuart Mill enumer<strong>at</strong>es a series of truths<br />

which, he tells us, he had learnt from continental thinkers,<br />

which have a relevance to this issue.<br />

"Th<strong>at</strong> the human mind has a certain order of possible<br />

progress, in which some things must precede otbers, an<br />

order which governments and public instructors can modify<br />

to some, but not to an unlimited extent: th<strong>at</strong> all questions<br />

of political institutions are rel<strong>at</strong>ive, not absolute, and th<strong>at</strong><br />

different stages of human progrcM not only wUl have, but<br />

ought to have, different institutions: th<strong>at</strong> government is

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