Tactical Nuclear Weapons and NATO.pdf - Program on Strategic ...

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7. Robert S. Norris et al., “Where They Were,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November/December 1999, p. 30, citing the declassified Office of the Assistant to the Secretary of Defense (Atomic Energy), History of the Custody <strong>and</strong> Deployment of <strong>Nuclear</strong> <strong>Weapons</strong>, July 1945 through September 1977, February 1978, excerpts of which are available from www.nukestrat.com/us/1978_ Custodyex.<strong>pdf</strong>. 8. Peter Hayes et al., American Lake: <strong>Nuclear</strong> Peril in the Pacific, New York: Penguin Books, 1986, pp. 57-59. Hayes <strong>and</strong> his coauthors cite the reminiscences of then-U.S. Comm<strong>and</strong>er-in-Chief, Pacific (CINCPAC) Harry Felt <strong>and</strong> an Air Force history of the 1958 crisis for this assessment. 9. Marc Trachtenberg, A Constructed Peace: The Making of the European Settlement, 1945-1963, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1999, p. 257, citing statements of intent by President Eisenhower in closed meetings, <strong>and</strong> pp. 287-89, citing comparable statements by President Kennedy. 10. See Andrew Krepinevich <strong>and</strong> Robert O. Work, A New Global Defense Posture for the Second Transoceanic Era, Washington, DC: Center for Strategic <strong>and</strong> Budgetary Assessments, 2007, pp. 97-138. For a contemporary analysis, see Townsend Hoopes, “Overseas Bases in American Strategy,” Foreign Affairs, October 1958, esp. pp. 69 <strong>and</strong> 71. 11. For a classic analysis of this point, see Albert Wohlstetter, “The Delicate Balance of Terror,” Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1958. 12. See Maxwell D. Taylor, The Uncertain Trumpet, New York: Harper & Brothers, 1960. 13. For a history of the consideration of nuclear weapons in relation to breaking the siege of Khe Sanh, see William C. Yengst et al., <strong>Nuclear</strong> <strong>Weapons</strong> That Went to War, Report prepared for the Defense Special <strong>Weapons</strong> Agency, Washington, DC, October 1996, pp. 204-226. 14. See <strong>NATO</strong> MC 14/3, “Overall Strategic Concept for the Defence of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation Area,” January 99
16, 1968, pp. 14-15. See also <strong>NATO</strong> Information Service, The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, 1949-1989, Brussels, Belgium: <strong>NATO</strong> Information Service, 1989, p. 218. 15. For a similar view, see Paul Bracken, Fire in the East: The Rise of Asian Military Power <strong>and</strong> the Second <strong>Nuclear</strong> Age, New York: HarperCollins, 1999, pp. 25-77. 16. Tellingly, U.S. deployment of nuclear weapons to its naval forces in the Pacific was considerably more modest than in the Atlantic, where North Atlantic Treaty Organization (<strong>NATO</strong>) navies would face the main onslaught of the Soviet Navy. See Norris et al., “Where They Were,” p. 32, citing declassified History. 17. For an assessment of this phenomenon, originally written in 1991, see Andrew F. Krepinevich, Jr., The Military-Technical Revolution: A Preliminary Assessment, Washington, DC: Center for Strategic <strong>and</strong> Budgetary Assessments, 2002. 18. Norris et al., “Where They Were,” pp. 30-31, citing declassified History. 19. See Hans M. Kristensen, “A History of U.S. <strong>Nuclear</strong> <strong>Weapons</strong> in South Korea,” September 28, 2005, available from www. nukestrat.com/korea/koreahistory.htm. See also citations in Keith Payne et al., U.S. Extended Deterrence <strong>and</strong> Assurance in Northeast Asia, Fairfax, VA: National Institute of Public Policy Press, 2010, notes 21, 44. 20. Hans M. Kristensen, Japan Under the <strong>Nuclear</strong> Umbrella: U.S. <strong>Nuclear</strong> <strong>Weapons</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Nuclear</strong> War Planning in Japan During the Cold War, Berkeley, CA: The Nautilus Institute, 1999, pp. 26-29, citing declassified U.S. Government documents. A contemporaneous declassified CINCPAC Comm<strong>and</strong> History named only U.S. <strong>and</strong> South Korean locations for U.S. nuclear weapons as of 1976. See Comm<strong>and</strong>er in Chief, U.S. Pacific Comm<strong>and</strong>, CINCPAC Comm<strong>and</strong> History 1977, Vol. II, September 1, 1978, p. 431, available from oldsite.nautilus.org/archives/library/security/foia/Japan/CINCPA C77IIp431.PDF; Hayes et al., American Lake, pp. 224-225. 21. For more on this topic, see Elbridge A. Colby, “The United States <strong>and</strong> Discriminate <strong>Nuclear</strong> Options in the Cold War,” in Jef- 100
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***** Comments pertaining to this r
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6. Aspects of the Current Russian P
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21. Arms Control after START ......
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this incredible amount of destructi
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hundreds of U.S. weapons (a
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TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND <stron
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Security was an additional problem.
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embraced lessons learned from the 1
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I learned here of some of the deep
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CHAPTER 1 THE HISTORICAL CONTEXT Ri
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as just another kind of military op
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it, the Allies were unlikely to agr
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• Assets for future arms control
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ments are dissimilar. Whereas Europ
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CHAPTER 2 TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS
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ombs in Europe as strategic weapons
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experiences of war, in a less moral
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Strangelovian image for NAT
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II. 1953-1963. U.S. STRATEGIC SUPER
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• For what political purposes mig
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widely heralded move to flexible re
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clear sentiment for the Alliance <s
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Nevertheless, Germany underst<stron
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first in order to break up his forc
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saw Pact lines to interdict strateg
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The Democratic People’s Republic
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given release authority by the Sovi
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III. 1963-1967. EMERGING DOUBTS CON
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esponse: without it, the Allies wer
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ous arms control groups argue that
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Why Did NATO Keep
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France were equipped with nuclear w
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Page 78 and 79: However, concerned by the post-Viet
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Page 86 and 87: 5. “The position we have reached
Page 88 and 89: 24. Marc Trachtenberg, A Constructe
Page 90 and 91: 49. Catherine McArdle Kelleher, “
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Page 94 and 95: 100. Corroborated by Catherine Kell
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Page 146 and 147: national security strategy. Current
Page 148 and 149: On April 23, 1999, Viktor Nikolaevi
Page 150 and 151: First of all, the word “obligatio
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uild a missile defense system in so
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10. “Ktokhitree: Mir vstupil v er
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36. Sergei Karaganov “Global Zero
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CHAPTER 6 ASPECTS OF THE CURRENT RU
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NATO countries. Du
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allistic missile defense (BMD), <st
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Meanwhile, the factor of China (wit
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Today, in fact, only the nuclear um
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By the same logic, preventing a pot
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diminishes still further Russian in
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1989 —April 12 SHORT-RANGE NUCLEA
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where Russian interest is higher th
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6. Kozin, “Five obstacles.” 7.
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CHAPTER 7 INFLUENCES ON RUSSIAN POL
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general and its ow
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are show of unanimity from nearly a
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ally; it is just that others are ac
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to direct Russian toward multilater
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armor, like T-62 tanks and<
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Reducing Non-Strategic Nucl
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The Russian inventory has been redu
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Under present conditions, the range
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Ws should be multilateral, with the
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continue the practice of conducting
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the General Staff Nikolai Makarov o
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CHAPTER 8 RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVES ON N
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Yet these concerns are most likely
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Bush and Mikhail G
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anyone’s guess. As mentioned abov
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STRATEGY Russian NSNWs attracted in
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lored damage” (zadannyi ushcherb)
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intrigue pertaining to nuclear weap
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eaching political, military, <stron
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Inertia. The longer this position i
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In a similar vein, the Foreign Mini
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THE RUSSIAN NSNW POSITION: LIMITS A
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tated to what it calls an “integr
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ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 8 1. “Zayavlen
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13. The 12th Main Department of the
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PART III EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVES 227
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ope is illustrative of a more funda
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maintaining these weapons or their
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CHAPTER 10 THE ROLE AND PLACE OF TA
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positions, preoccupations,
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cohesion and solid
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ferred to by the now familiar term
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The second track is an effort to de
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The United States. The traditional
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the nuclear discussions apply only
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supported by other members. However
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cerning its nuclear posture. On the
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tial expert on the dangers of nucle
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8. This is reminiscent of the posit
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a London or Paris perspective, thei
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One of the most important factors w
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mer Vice-Chairman of the Joint Chie
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Armed Service Air and</stro
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Nunn in 2007 and 2
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that the debate on a nuclear-free w
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modify the Alliance’s nuclear pos
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years. Signs of progress include th
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on a modified CFE regime an
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9. See Miles A. Pomper, William Pot
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Paper, No. 7, Washington, DC: Arms
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eventual elimination are considered
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In the post-bipolar international s
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levels of enthusiasm, most European
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DIFFERING THREAT ASSESSMENTS AND AL
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troops in 2008 and
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that NATO as a who
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distinction between tactical <stron
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12. Author’s interview with a sen
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19. NATO’s argum
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31. Valasek, p. 24. 32. Lukasz Kule
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CHAPTER 13 EUROPE, NATO</st
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not reached a clear consensus on wh
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In an environment in which there is
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ing of signals within the Alliance.
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NATO foreign minis
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mean that the strategic lan
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weapon holdings did not exceed 225
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attitude to how nuclear weapons wil
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ghanistan will also help to determi
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German territory. On the other h<st
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PART IV AMERICAN PERSPECTIVES 321
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siles and aircraft
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ment of U.S. nuclear weapons in Eur
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that these weapons still have a rol
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with nuclear weapons, and</
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homeland. The trad
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However, if the United States were
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(estimated, to be 150-200) of U.S.
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er-projection capabilities, <strong
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ventional weapons. Unlike the perce
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any U.S. NSNWs deployed or stored i
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ganizational changes in recent year
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It is unrealistic to believe, as so
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Prague agenda with its goal of glob
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has a different set of critical qua
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ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 15 1. Assistant
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15. Ibid., p. xii. 16. Ibid. 17. Ib
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Hans M. Kristensen, “Nucl
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52. See Jeffrey A. Larsen a
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Hence, whatever course the Allies s
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self from the conflict. Of course,
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arguments by and l
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cal to the later stages of this cam
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The fundamentals of Smart Defense a
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deterrence and def
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ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 16 1. These are
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CHAPTER 17 ROLE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS
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Two of the greatest enduring threat
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a monkey to an altitude of 120 km (
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including a “dual capable” (nuc
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By the end of the Cold War, in 1991
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U.S. Focus and Int
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eset by conflict, deterrence seeks
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Command in 2010. H
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y arms control and
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into account the disparity between
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Furthermore, the United States <str
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table price human beings must pay t
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16. See www.tradereform.org/wp-cont
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PART V ARMS CONTROL AS AN OPTION 40
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ise as a vehicle for regulating <st
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arms control to address the perceiv
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posite discussion within the contex
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CHAPTER 19 ARMS CONTROL OPTIONS FOR
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U.S. AND RUSSIAN NON-STRATEGIC NUCL
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into the discussion is that it woul
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get missiles on NATO</stron
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ficials have announced a major 10-y
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the INF Treaty banned all INF missi
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Others have also suggested that tra
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ample of the latter, in 1991 Presid
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certain percentage, say 50 percent.
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heads. Nondeployed strategic warhea
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ily in Washington’s judgment, <st
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publican president is less clear at
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10. “Strategic Concept for the De
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CHAPTER 20 TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS
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Most of the attempted adaptation <s
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ight metric (and t
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weapons (NSNWs)? A look at the key
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other, has ever gained serious cons
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who occasionally address other thea
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most of the other parties. Russia
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security concerns and</stro
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objectives and out
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CHAPTER 21 ARMS CONTROL AFTER START
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withdrawal as part of a wider disen
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ience with the Anti-Ballistic Missi
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strengthening of first-strike stabi
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ons away from the territory of <str
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is the relationship between them th
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would have added credibility were i
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still making a substantial contribu
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tionship between transparency <stro
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NATO WILL SURVIVE
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As in the past, the most likely cau
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summit on the effective control of
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deployed to Europe to approximately
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NATO policymakers.
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One of the alliances, the Warsaw Pa
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Hungary, and Slova
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statement at the conclusion of the
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anti-ballistic missiles on Polish t
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Following the meeting of OSCE forei
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inform Russia of any significant ch
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are difficult to correlate complete
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West. President Obama noted such a
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ing agreements. It must also combin
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19. Ibid. 20. Lachowski, p. 5. 21.
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PART VI CONCLUSION 505
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that means. Today, this seems to be
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more prosaic level, the presence of
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fence and Foreign
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JEFFREY A. LARSEN is a Senior Scien
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GUY B. ROBERTS was until recently <
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
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