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Tactical Nuclear Weapons and NATO.pdf - Program on Strategic ...

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By the same token, an NSNW regime is unlikely<br />

to play a significant role here, unless by the indirect<br />

route of stati<strong>on</strong>ing in these areas forces or facilities<br />

whose own security needs may increase the urgency<br />

of resolving regi<strong>on</strong>al tensi<strong>on</strong>s (e.g., the Gabala radar<br />

array in Azerbaijan as a potential comp<strong>on</strong>ent of a cooperative<br />

missile defense system).<br />

Role of Alliances.<br />

How do alliance relati<strong>on</strong>ships affect treaty participati<strong>on</strong>?<br />

The CFE Treaty very carefully <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> purposefully<br />

reiterates the rights of the parties “to be or not to be”<br />

members of alliances. Obviously this has not kept<br />

<str<strong>on</strong>g>NATO</str<strong>on</strong>g> from being judged by its collective holdings<br />

as a source of security c<strong>on</strong>cerns (or reassurances) by<br />

those still determined to seek a “balance” of European<br />

forces. Indeed, the slowness of <str<strong>on</strong>g>NATO</str<strong>on</strong>g> to undertake<br />

major reducti<strong>on</strong>s in its collective CFE equipment ceilings<br />

was a prominent reas<strong>on</strong> offered by the Russians<br />

as motivating their “suspensi<strong>on</strong>” of Treaty participati<strong>on</strong>.<br />

As noted earlier, this perspective seems even more<br />

prominent in the NSNW dialogue, which seldom escapes<br />

a <str<strong>on</strong>g>NATO</str<strong>on</strong>g>/Russia orientati<strong>on</strong>. Refocusing threat<br />

assumpti<strong>on</strong>s to follow c<strong>on</strong>temporary theater missile<br />

defense scenarios seems, <strong>on</strong>ce again, the appropriate<br />

<str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> c<strong>on</strong>sistent course correcti<strong>on</strong>.<br />

The “Reset.”<br />

How can arms c<strong>on</strong>trol promote Russia dialogue <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />

integrati<strong>on</strong>? Its troubles notwithst<str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g>ing, CFE, not to<br />

menti<strong>on</strong> VDoc <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> Open Skies, has provided a regular<br />

<str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> intensive venue for dialogue <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> discussi<strong>on</strong> of<br />

450

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