Tactical Nuclear Weapons and NATO.pdf - Program on Strategic ...

inform Russia of any significant change” in American
forces in Europe. 25 Thus the November 22, 2011,
announcement appears simply to acknowledge that,
after 4 years, the United States <strong>and</strong> its <strong>NATO</strong> partners
could not continue to fulfill treaty obligations absent
some reciprocity from Moscow. But this U.S. reaction
may offer an opportunity to bypass the logjam that has
occurred for the past 4 years. It could clear the agenda
<strong>and</strong> allow negotiations to commence that consider
other areas of mutual interest between Russia <strong>and</strong>
<strong>NATO</strong> as well as other conventional arms proposals.
The failure to find a solution that would have allowed
the Adapted CFE Treaty to enter into force was
clearly a disappointment. Still American <strong>and</strong> European
policymakers can take some solace from the fact
that during the 4-plus years since the Russian Federation
suspended its participation, the Alliance has been
able to maintain internal unity on the issue. It seems
clear in retrospect that the Russian Federation firmly
believed that over time some <strong>NATO</strong> members would
in fact “break ranks” <strong>and</strong> seek to ratify the Adapted
CFE Treaty. At a minimum, the Federation hoped that
the issue would cause increased friction among alliance
members. Clearly this did not occur. Of course, it
is important to realize that the Russian war with Georgia
did serendipitously serve to enhance <strong>NATO</strong> unity.
It is also important to realize that the partial cessation
of U.S. <strong>and</strong> its Allies’ participation may complicate
efforts to begin a new round of negotiations.
A few states may need to terminate the existing CFE
Treaty in order to begin discussions of a new agreement
in order to comply with domestic legal requirements.
Some legal experts believe that this could be
accomplished by reopening the Adapted Treaty negotiations
while maintaining the existing number of
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