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Tactical Nuclear Weapons and NATO.pdf - Program on Strategic ...

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ight metric (<str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> things are still enough in flux<br />

to leave uncertainty about what is).<br />

• Ec<strong>on</strong>omic <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> budgetary c<strong>on</strong>straints are playing<br />

an increasingly prominent role in planning—not<br />

just in force sizing, but in development<br />

<str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> implementati<strong>on</strong> of arms c<strong>on</strong>trol<br />

measures themselves as well (i.e., not just arms<br />

<strong>on</strong> the cheap, but arms c<strong>on</strong>trol <strong>on</strong> the cheap).<br />

In this envir<strong>on</strong>ment, some general objectives can<br />

be discerned from c<strong>on</strong>temporary efforts to update the<br />

c<strong>on</strong>ceptual model for c<strong>on</strong>venti<strong>on</strong>al arms c<strong>on</strong>trol:<br />

1. Promote European <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> regi<strong>on</strong>al security by<br />

building c<strong>on</strong>fidence <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> reducing uncertainty.<br />

• In a post-bloc envir<strong>on</strong>ment, building c<strong>on</strong>fidence<br />

is principally a functi<strong>on</strong> of knowing the<br />

character <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> limits of others’ forces. There<br />

being no formal “balance” to be struck, actors<br />

acquire c<strong>on</strong>fidence from the stability <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> predictability<br />

resulting from an agreed system of<br />

limitati<strong>on</strong>s (of some sort), <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> seek what other<br />

security arrangements they find necessary bey<strong>on</strong>d<br />

the arms c<strong>on</strong>trol regime itself.<br />

• Uncertainty is reduced by obtaining detailed<br />

informati<strong>on</strong> <strong>on</strong> the dispositi<strong>on</strong> of others’ forces,<br />

both static <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> dynamic, <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> c<strong>on</strong>ducting visits,<br />

evaluati<strong>on</strong>s, <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> inspecti<strong>on</strong>s to verify the informati<strong>on</strong><br />

supplied.<br />

2. Maintain operati<strong>on</strong>al flexibility <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> operati<strong>on</strong>al<br />

security.<br />

• Given the c<strong>on</strong>tinuing flux of force structure,<br />

doctrine, <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> technology, parties will tend to<br />

resist any obligati<strong>on</strong>s or c<strong>on</strong>straints that may<br />

441

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