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Meanwhile, the factor of China (with its large population <strong>and</strong> its suspected veiled claim on Russian eastern territories) may appear to be a more important <strong>and</strong> more realistic security concern than <strong>NATO</strong> for Russia in the context of TNWs. It is thus quite likely that the latest amendments in Russian military doctrine that allow for the possibility of using nuclear weapons against conventional attacks are not accidental. In spite of the traditional political rhetoric about a strategic partnership between China <strong>and</strong> Russia, in both countries there is a common opinion among scholars <strong>and</strong> both societies that the two countries cannot trust each other. With continuous growth in China’s political, economic, <strong>and</strong> military weight, China has become a leading trading partner for the United States <strong>and</strong> for the European Union (EU). China consistently projects its economic interests not only to Africa, but also to the regions that border Russia <strong>and</strong> that have for centuries been considered by Russians to be in their sphere of vital interests. They stretch from the countries of Central Asia to Belarus. The routine publication in recent years of scholarly studies <strong>and</strong> news media articles about problematic relations between Russia <strong>and</strong> China may indeed be a reflection of the growing tensions between the two countries. 9 In addition to the major military security concerns related to the TNW issue as discussed above—Russia’s geographical vulnerability, <strong>NATO</strong> conventional superiority, European BMD deployment, American weapons in space, <strong>and</strong> the challenge of China—Russian experts also talk about many narrower problems dealing with terminology, effectiveness of control, <strong>and</strong> other peripheral issues. Russian experts discuss at length the criteria for classifying nuclear weapons as “tactical” <strong>and</strong> the prospects for establishing <strong>and</strong> main- 161
taining effective verification mechanisms. They insist on the necessity to take into account during negotiations not just U.S. <strong>and</strong> Russian TNWs, but the nuclear arsenals of other countries of the region as well: Russia’s position should be based on the evident fact that TNW is a weapon of regional deterrence, <strong>and</strong>, consequently, during the process of defining the parameters of the Russian TNW arsenal for the purpose of negotiations, the nuclear weapons of France, Great Britain, Israel <strong>and</strong> Pakistan should be taken into account. 10 RUSSIAN LINKAGE BETWEEN POLITICS AND TNWs As of this writing in 2012, the issue of reducing TNWs is too politically sensitive for both sides, with the Russian presidential election only just completed, <strong>and</strong> the U.S. presidential election coming up in November. Russia is falling significantly behind its two major competitors—the United States <strong>and</strong> <strong>NATO</strong>—in economic <strong>and</strong> technological areas <strong>and</strong> behind China in terms of population <strong>and</strong> industrial potential. It is therefore drawn in foreign policy matters to TNWs as a political weapon, threatening to deploy tactical nuclear-capable missiles in response either to <strong>NATO</strong> enlargement to the East or to plans for BMD in Europe. Furthermore, it is important to remember that the nuclear weapon is one of the few or, many argue, the only remaining credential supporting the superpower status of Russia. Moscow almost lost this status after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Psychologically, it is still a very important prop for Russians generally <strong>and</strong> for the Russian leadership: 162
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***** Comments pertaining to this r
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6. Aspects of the Current Russian P
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21. Arms Control after START ......
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this incredible amount of destructi
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hundreds of U.S. weapons (a
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TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND <stron
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Security was an additional problem.
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embraced lessons learned from the 1
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I learned here of some of the deep
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CHAPTER 1 THE HISTORICAL CONTEXT Ri
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as just another kind of military op
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it, the Allies were unlikely to agr
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• Assets for future arms control
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ments are dissimilar. Whereas Europ
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CHAPTER 2 TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS
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ombs in Europe as strategic weapons
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experiences of war, in a less moral
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Strangelovian image for NAT
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II. 1953-1963. U.S. STRATEGIC SUPER
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• For what political purposes mig
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widely heralded move to flexible re
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clear sentiment for the Alliance <s
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Nevertheless, Germany underst<stron
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first in order to break up his forc
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saw Pact lines to interdict strateg
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The Democratic People’s Republic
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given release authority by the Sovi
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III. 1963-1967. EMERGING DOUBTS CON
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esponse: without it, the Allies wer
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ous arms control groups argue that
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Why Did NATO Keep
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France were equipped with nuclear w
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slowly changing deterrence ethos wa
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through widespread protests, openly
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although it decided that the remain
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e concealed by the regular annual <
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However, concerned by the post-Viet
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ously create a public and</
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ers have repeatedly reemphasized th
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judged to generate (but which may n
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5. “The position we have reached
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24. Marc Trachtenberg, A Constructe
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49. Catherine McArdle Kelleher, “
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76. Joseph F. Pilat and</st
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100. Corroborated by Catherine Kell
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CHAPTER 3 U.S. NUCLEAR WEAPONS POLI
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the North Atlantic Treaty Organizat
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delivery exercised a dominant influ
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conventional strength. 14 In the Pa
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the capability to employ such weapo
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ground-launched short-range nuclear
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curity policy in Asia, and<
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lies. 31 At the strategic a
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mediate postwar period. Washington
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ons throughout the Cold War <strong
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These shifts are the products both
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power and the prol
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7. Robert S. Norris et al., “Wher
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frey A. Larsen and
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near Central Europe and</st
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47. Available from armedservices.ho
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CHAPTER 4 RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVES ON T
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Page 134 and 135: ers to produce income from Russian
Page 136 and 137: 3. These are the results of polls o
Page 138 and 139: TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND THE FE
Page 140 and 141: Russia’s anticipated spending of
Page 142 and 143: arms race was on, and</stro
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Page 146 and 147: national security strategy. Current
Page 148 and 149: On April 23, 1999, Viktor Nikolaevi
Page 150 and 151: First of all, the word “obligatio
Page 152 and 153: By 2004, a young scholar, Aleksei F
Page 154 and 155: time, it seems to believe that, in
Page 156 and 157: ence as the chief factor that limit
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Page 160 and 161: in areas affecting Russian national
Page 162 and 163: armed struggle at sea for the perio
Page 164 and 165: centric warfare. Citing both Chines
Page 166 and 167: tation to maintain security <strong
Page 168 and 169: PROSPECTS FOR A U.S.-RUSSIAN TREATY
Page 170 and 171: uild a missile defense system in so
Page 172 and 173: 10. “Ktokhitree: Mir vstupil v er
Page 174 and 175: 36. Sergei Karaganov “Global Zero
Page 176 and 177: CHAPTER 6 ASPECTS OF THE CURRENT RU
Page 178 and 179: NATO countries. Du
Page 180 and 181: allistic missile defense (BMD), <st
Page 184 and 185: Today, in fact, only the nuclear um
Page 186 and 187: By the same logic, preventing a pot
Page 188 and 189: diminishes still further Russian in
Page 190 and 191: 1989 —April 12 SHORT-RANGE NUCLEA
Page 192 and 193: where Russian interest is higher th
Page 194 and 195: 6. Kozin, “Five obstacles.” 7.
Page 196 and 197: CHAPTER 7 INFLUENCES ON RUSSIAN POL
Page 198 and 199: general and its ow
Page 200 and 201: are show of unanimity from nearly a
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Page 208 and 209: Reducing Non-Strategic Nucl
Page 210 and 211: The Russian inventory has been redu
Page 212 and 213: Under present conditions, the range
Page 214 and 215: Ws should be multilateral, with the
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Page 218 and 219: the General Staff Nikolai Makarov o
Page 220 and 221: CHAPTER 8 RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVES ON N
Page 222 and 223: Yet these concerns are most likely
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Page 226 and 227: anyone’s guess. As mentioned abov
Page 228 and 229: STRATEGY Russian NSNWs attracted in
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intrigue pertaining to nuclear weap
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eaching political, military, <stron
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Inertia. The longer this position i
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In a similar vein, the Foreign Mini
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THE RUSSIAN NSNW POSITION: LIMITS A
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tated to what it calls an “integr
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ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 8 1. “Zayavlen
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13. The 12th Main Department of the
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PART III EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVES 227
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ope is illustrative of a more funda
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maintaining these weapons or their
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CHAPTER 10 THE ROLE AND PLACE OF TA
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positions, preoccupations,
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cohesion and solid
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ferred to by the now familiar term
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The second track is an effort to de
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The United States. The traditional
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the nuclear discussions apply only
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supported by other members. However
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cerning its nuclear posture. On the
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tial expert on the dangers of nucle
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8. This is reminiscent of the posit
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a London or Paris perspective, thei
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One of the most important factors w
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mer Vice-Chairman of the Joint Chie
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Armed Service Air and</stro
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Nunn in 2007 and 2
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that the debate on a nuclear-free w
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modify the Alliance’s nuclear pos
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years. Signs of progress include th
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on a modified CFE regime an
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9. See Miles A. Pomper, William Pot
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Paper, No. 7, Washington, DC: Arms
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eventual elimination are considered
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In the post-bipolar international s
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levels of enthusiasm, most European
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DIFFERING THREAT ASSESSMENTS AND AL
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troops in 2008 and
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that NATO as a who
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distinction between tactical <stron
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12. Author’s interview with a sen
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19. NATO’s argum
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31. Valasek, p. 24. 32. Lukasz Kule
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CHAPTER 13 EUROPE, NATO</st
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not reached a clear consensus on wh
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In an environment in which there is
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ing of signals within the Alliance.
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NATO foreign minis
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mean that the strategic lan
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weapon holdings did not exceed 225
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attitude to how nuclear weapons wil
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ghanistan will also help to determi
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German territory. On the other h<st
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PART IV AMERICAN PERSPECTIVES 321
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siles and aircraft
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ment of U.S. nuclear weapons in Eur
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that these weapons still have a rol
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with nuclear weapons, and</
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homeland. The trad
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However, if the United States were
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(estimated, to be 150-200) of U.S.
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er-projection capabilities, <strong
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ventional weapons. Unlike the perce
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any U.S. NSNWs deployed or stored i
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ganizational changes in recent year
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It is unrealistic to believe, as so
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Prague agenda with its goal of glob
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has a different set of critical qua
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ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 15 1. Assistant
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15. Ibid., p. xii. 16. Ibid. 17. Ib
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Hans M. Kristensen, “Nucl
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52. See Jeffrey A. Larsen a
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Hence, whatever course the Allies s
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self from the conflict. Of course,
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arguments by and l
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cal to the later stages of this cam
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The fundamentals of Smart Defense a
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deterrence and def
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ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 16 1. These are
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CHAPTER 17 ROLE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS
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Two of the greatest enduring threat
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a monkey to an altitude of 120 km (
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including a “dual capable” (nuc
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By the end of the Cold War, in 1991
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U.S. Focus and Int
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eset by conflict, deterrence seeks
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Command in 2010. H
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y arms control and
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into account the disparity between
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Furthermore, the United States <str
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table price human beings must pay t
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16. See www.tradereform.org/wp-cont
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PART V ARMS CONTROL AS AN OPTION 40
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ise as a vehicle for regulating <st
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arms control to address the perceiv
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posite discussion within the contex
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CHAPTER 19 ARMS CONTROL OPTIONS FOR
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U.S. AND RUSSIAN NON-STRATEGIC NUCL
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into the discussion is that it woul
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get missiles on NATO</stron
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ficials have announced a major 10-y
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the INF Treaty banned all INF missi
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Others have also suggested that tra
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ample of the latter, in 1991 Presid
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certain percentage, say 50 percent.
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heads. Nondeployed strategic warhea
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ily in Washington’s judgment, <st
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publican president is less clear at
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10. “Strategic Concept for the De
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CHAPTER 20 TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS
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Most of the attempted adaptation <s
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ight metric (and t
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weapons (NSNWs)? A look at the key
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other, has ever gained serious cons
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who occasionally address other thea
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most of the other parties. Russia
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security concerns and</stro
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objectives and out
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CHAPTER 21 ARMS CONTROL AFTER START
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withdrawal as part of a wider disen
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ience with the Anti-Ballistic Missi
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strengthening of first-strike stabi
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ons away from the territory of <str
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is the relationship between them th
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would have added credibility were i
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still making a substantial contribu
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tionship between transparency <stro
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NATO WILL SURVIVE
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As in the past, the most likely cau
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summit on the effective control of
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deployed to Europe to approximately
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NATO policymakers.
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One of the alliances, the Warsaw Pa
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Hungary, and Slova
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statement at the conclusion of the
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anti-ballistic missiles on Polish t
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Following the meeting of OSCE forei
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inform Russia of any significant ch
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are difficult to correlate complete
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West. President Obama noted such a
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ing agreements. It must also combin
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19. Ibid. 20. Lachowski, p. 5. 21.
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PART VI CONCLUSION 505
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that means. Today, this seems to be
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more prosaic level, the presence of
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fence and Foreign
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JEFFREY A. LARSEN is a Senior Scien
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GUY B. ROBERTS was until recently <
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
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