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Today, in fact, only the nuclear umbrella can provide Russia with a stable peaceful environment allowing it to conduct <strong>and</strong> successfully finish the process of internal reforms in the state <strong>and</strong> in the armed forces, in particular. Besides, nuclear weapons provide a high international status for our country, justify its membership in the United Nations (UN) Security Council, <strong>and</strong> allow us to define the rules of the game in the nuclear sphere. 11 Indeed, Russia still dem<strong>and</strong>s to be treated as a superpower, acting on its own as equal to <strong>NATO</strong>, declaring zones of special privileged interests, <strong>and</strong> organizing security alliances. This great power pose is central to modern Russia’s national identity <strong>and</strong> is unlikely to be relinquished any time soon. It works against possible disintegrative processes in the federation <strong>and</strong> acts as a glue to hold the national ethos intact. Such perceptions <strong>and</strong> prejudices make Russian experts very suspicious of American proposals, which they traditionally interpret as attempts to undermine the Russian state. Russians are very much worried by the thought that America wants to be the only military superpower capable of delivering an unpunished strike against Russia or any other opponent. They suspect that the true U.S. <strong>and</strong> <strong>NATO</strong> intention behind proposals for nuclear disarmament is to achieve global hegemony for themselves: On the surface, the first version of the U.S. motivation is its desire to broaden the possibilities for external institutional control over Russia. It means the focused limitation of the range of Russia’s possible responses to global processes, including via destabilizing events in the military-political sphere. Such limitation may be realized by entrapping Russia into a system of international agreements that channelize the processes in the 163
military-technical sphere toward the preferential (for the West) channel. 12 Another hypothesis suggests a more subtle U.S. strategy—the so-called “Chinese gambit,” whereby America gains Russia’s concurrence on substantial bilateral reductions in nuclear weapons, leading to a weakening of Russia’s global position. It would downgrade Russia to sixth or seventh place in the geostrategic hierarchy. As one commentator states, “In this case conditions will appear for channelizing the aspirations of . . . China in a northern direction, thus making it clash with Russia. As a result, two major geopolitical competitors (Russia <strong>and</strong> China) would supposedly be out of action for the foreseeable future.” 13 According to yet another suspicion, Americans are suggesting the exchange of numerical data <strong>and</strong> subsequent concentration of TNWs in a few centralized depots as a ruse for gathering data to support U.S. first-strike targeting. This idea is quite prevalent among Russian military comm<strong>and</strong>ers. Similarly, in their view, the real purpose of BMD in Europe is to deny Russia a retaliatory capability in the event of a nuclear attack from the West. The more authentic concern of western arms control experts is that, owing to the wide dispersal <strong>and</strong> lack of guaranteed security of TNW warheads, terrorists may acquire them. Such an eventuality does not worry Russian strategists as much as imagined American “treachery.” In the same vein, western reservations concerning the amended Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty are allegedly rooted in a barely hidden <strong>and</strong> one-sided desire to maintain <strong>NATO</strong> conventional superiority, especially in high-precision weapons. 164
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***** Comments pertaining to this r
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6. Aspects of the Current Russian P
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21. Arms Control after START ......
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this incredible amount of destructi
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hundreds of U.S. weapons (a
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TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND <stron
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Security was an additional problem.
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embraced lessons learned from the 1
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I learned here of some of the deep
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CHAPTER 1 THE HISTORICAL CONTEXT Ri
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as just another kind of military op
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it, the Allies were unlikely to agr
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• Assets for future arms control
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ments are dissimilar. Whereas Europ
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CHAPTER 2 TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS
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ombs in Europe as strategic weapons
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experiences of war, in a less moral
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Strangelovian image for NAT
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II. 1953-1963. U.S. STRATEGIC SUPER
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• For what political purposes mig
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widely heralded move to flexible re
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clear sentiment for the Alliance <s
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Nevertheless, Germany underst<stron
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first in order to break up his forc
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saw Pact lines to interdict strateg
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The Democratic People’s Republic
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given release authority by the Sovi
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III. 1963-1967. EMERGING DOUBTS CON
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esponse: without it, the Allies wer
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ous arms control groups argue that
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Why Did NATO Keep
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France were equipped with nuclear w
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slowly changing deterrence ethos wa
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through widespread protests, openly
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although it decided that the remain
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e concealed by the regular annual <
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However, concerned by the post-Viet
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ously create a public and</
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ers have repeatedly reemphasized th
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judged to generate (but which may n
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5. “The position we have reached
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24. Marc Trachtenberg, A Constructe
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49. Catherine McArdle Kelleher, “
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76. Joseph F. Pilat and</st
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100. Corroborated by Catherine Kell
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CHAPTER 3 U.S. NUCLEAR WEAPONS POLI
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the North Atlantic Treaty Organizat
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delivery exercised a dominant influ
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conventional strength. 14 In the Pa
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the capability to employ such weapo
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ground-launched short-range nuclear
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curity policy in Asia, and<
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lies. 31 At the strategic a
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mediate postwar period. Washington
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ons throughout the Cold War <strong
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These shifts are the products both
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power and the prol
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7. Robert S. Norris et al., “Wher
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frey A. Larsen and
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near Central Europe and</st
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47. Available from armedservices.ho
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CHAPTER 4 RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVES ON T
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Russian Navy would be particularly
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Page 146 and 147: national security strategy. Current
Page 148 and 149: On April 23, 1999, Viktor Nikolaevi
Page 150 and 151: First of all, the word “obligatio
Page 152 and 153: By 2004, a young scholar, Aleksei F
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Page 160 and 161: in areas affecting Russian national
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Page 168 and 169: PROSPECTS FOR A U.S.-RUSSIAN TREATY
Page 170 and 171: uild a missile defense system in so
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Page 174 and 175: 36. Sergei Karaganov “Global Zero
Page 176 and 177: CHAPTER 6 ASPECTS OF THE CURRENT RU
Page 178 and 179: NATO countries. Du
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Page 182 and 183: Meanwhile, the factor of China (wit
Page 186 and 187: By the same logic, preventing a pot
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Page 192 and 193: where Russian interest is higher th
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Page 196 and 197: CHAPTER 7 INFLUENCES ON RUSSIAN POL
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Page 208 and 209: Reducing Non-Strategic Nucl
Page 210 and 211: The Russian inventory has been redu
Page 212 and 213: Under present conditions, the range
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Page 220 and 221: CHAPTER 8 RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVES ON N
Page 222 and 223: Yet these concerns are most likely
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Page 226 and 227: anyone’s guess. As mentioned abov
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eaching political, military, <stron
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Inertia. The longer this position i
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In a similar vein, the Foreign Mini
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THE RUSSIAN NSNW POSITION: LIMITS A
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tated to what it calls an “integr
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ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 8 1. “Zayavlen
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13. The 12th Main Department of the
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PART III EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVES 227
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ope is illustrative of a more funda
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maintaining these weapons or their
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CHAPTER 10 THE ROLE AND PLACE OF TA
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positions, preoccupations,
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cohesion and solid
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ferred to by the now familiar term
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The second track is an effort to de
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The United States. The traditional
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the nuclear discussions apply only
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supported by other members. However
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cerning its nuclear posture. On the
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tial expert on the dangers of nucle
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8. This is reminiscent of the posit
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a London or Paris perspective, thei
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One of the most important factors w
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mer Vice-Chairman of the Joint Chie
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Armed Service Air and</stro
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Nunn in 2007 and 2
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that the debate on a nuclear-free w
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modify the Alliance’s nuclear pos
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years. Signs of progress include th
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on a modified CFE regime an
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9. See Miles A. Pomper, William Pot
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Paper, No. 7, Washington, DC: Arms
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eventual elimination are considered
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In the post-bipolar international s
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levels of enthusiasm, most European
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DIFFERING THREAT ASSESSMENTS AND AL
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troops in 2008 and
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that NATO as a who
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distinction between tactical <stron
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12. Author’s interview with a sen
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19. NATO’s argum
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31. Valasek, p. 24. 32. Lukasz Kule
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CHAPTER 13 EUROPE, NATO</st
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not reached a clear consensus on wh
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In an environment in which there is
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ing of signals within the Alliance.
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NATO foreign minis
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mean that the strategic lan
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weapon holdings did not exceed 225
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attitude to how nuclear weapons wil
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ghanistan will also help to determi
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German territory. On the other h<st
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PART IV AMERICAN PERSPECTIVES 321
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siles and aircraft
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ment of U.S. nuclear weapons in Eur
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that these weapons still have a rol
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with nuclear weapons, and</
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homeland. The trad
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However, if the United States were
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(estimated, to be 150-200) of U.S.
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er-projection capabilities, <strong
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ventional weapons. Unlike the perce
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any U.S. NSNWs deployed or stored i
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ganizational changes in recent year
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It is unrealistic to believe, as so
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Prague agenda with its goal of glob
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has a different set of critical qua
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ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 15 1. Assistant
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15. Ibid., p. xii. 16. Ibid. 17. Ib
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Hans M. Kristensen, “Nucl
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52. See Jeffrey A. Larsen a
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Hence, whatever course the Allies s
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self from the conflict. Of course,
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arguments by and l
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cal to the later stages of this cam
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The fundamentals of Smart Defense a
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deterrence and def
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ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 16 1. These are
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CHAPTER 17 ROLE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS
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Two of the greatest enduring threat
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a monkey to an altitude of 120 km (
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including a “dual capable” (nuc
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By the end of the Cold War, in 1991
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U.S. Focus and Int
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eset by conflict, deterrence seeks
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Command in 2010. H
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y arms control and
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into account the disparity between
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Furthermore, the United States <str
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table price human beings must pay t
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16. See www.tradereform.org/wp-cont
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PART V ARMS CONTROL AS AN OPTION 40
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ise as a vehicle for regulating <st
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arms control to address the perceiv
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posite discussion within the contex
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CHAPTER 19 ARMS CONTROL OPTIONS FOR
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U.S. AND RUSSIAN NON-STRATEGIC NUCL
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into the discussion is that it woul
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get missiles on NATO</stron
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ficials have announced a major 10-y
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the INF Treaty banned all INF missi
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Others have also suggested that tra
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ample of the latter, in 1991 Presid
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certain percentage, say 50 percent.
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heads. Nondeployed strategic warhea
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ily in Washington’s judgment, <st
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publican president is less clear at
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10. “Strategic Concept for the De
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CHAPTER 20 TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS
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Most of the attempted adaptation <s
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ight metric (and t
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weapons (NSNWs)? A look at the key
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other, has ever gained serious cons
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who occasionally address other thea
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most of the other parties. Russia
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security concerns and</stro
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objectives and out
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CHAPTER 21 ARMS CONTROL AFTER START
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withdrawal as part of a wider disen
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ience with the Anti-Ballistic Missi
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strengthening of first-strike stabi
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ons away from the territory of <str
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is the relationship between them th
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would have added credibility were i
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still making a substantial contribu
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tionship between transparency <stro
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NATO WILL SURVIVE
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As in the past, the most likely cau
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summit on the effective control of
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deployed to Europe to approximately
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NATO policymakers.
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One of the alliances, the Warsaw Pa
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Hungary, and Slova
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statement at the conclusion of the
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anti-ballistic missiles on Polish t
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Following the meeting of OSCE forei
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inform Russia of any significant ch
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are difficult to correlate complete
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West. President Obama noted such a
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ing agreements. It must also combin
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19. Ibid. 20. Lachowski, p. 5. 21.
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PART VI CONCLUSION 505
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that means. Today, this seems to be
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more prosaic level, the presence of
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fence and Foreign
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JEFFREY A. LARSEN is a Senior Scien
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GUY B. ROBERTS was until recently <
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
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