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ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 8 1. “Zayavlenieprezidenta v svyazi s situatsiei, kotorayaslozhilasvokrugsistemy PRO stran <strong>NATO</strong> v Evrope” (Statement of the President with Respect to the Situation that has Emerged Around the Missile Defense System of <strong>NATO</strong> Countries in Europe), November 23, 2011, available from president.kremlin.ru/news/13637. 2. Miles Pomper, Willian Potter, <strong>and</strong> Nikolai Sokov, Reducing <strong>and</strong> Regulating <strong>Tactical</strong> (Non-strategic) <strong>Nuclear</strong> <strong>Weapons</strong> in Europe, CNS Occasional Paper, December 2009. 3. Hans M. Kristensen <strong>and</strong> Robert S. Norris, “Russian <strong>Nuclear</strong> Forces, 2011,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 67, No. 67, 2011, available from bos.sagepub.com/content/67/3/67.full.<strong>pdf</strong>+html. 4. “Prakticheskie Shagi Rossiiskoi Federatsii Oblasti Yadernogo Razoruzheniya” (“Practical Actions of the Russian Federation in the Area of <strong>Nuclear</strong> Disarmament”), Report presented at the 7th NPT Review Conference, 2005, slide 13, available from www.mid.ru/ns-dvbr.nsf/10aa6ac6e80702fc432569ea003612f0/526da0 88ef7526e3c325700d002f81c7/$FILE/Presentation-Russian.<strong>pdf</strong>; “Rossiya Perevypolnila Plany po Sokrashcheniyu Yadernogo Oruzhiya” (“Russia Has Overfulfilled the Plan for Reduction of <strong>Nuclear</strong> <strong>Weapons</strong>”), RIA-Novosti, June 22, 2005, available from www.rian. ru/politics/20050622/40566772.html. 5. Alexei Arbatov, “Deep Cuts <strong>and</strong> De-Alerting: A Russian Perspective,” The <strong>Nuclear</strong> Turning Point, Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 1999, p. 320. 6. Nikolai Poroskov, “Takticheskii Yadernyi Kozyr” (“A <strong>Tactical</strong> <strong>Nuclear</strong> Ace”), Vremya Novostei, September 7, 2007. 7. Igor Korotchenko is a member of the “Public Council” of the Ministry of Defense (MOD)—a body similar in status <strong>and</strong> function to an advisory board. It consists of public figures selected by the MOD <strong>and</strong> advises/consults with the military on a variety of issues. The impact on decisions made by the military leadership is apparently barely discernible, but membership on the council provides some public stature, <strong>and</strong> Korotchenko in particular seems often to serve as a conduit for announcements that the military does not want attributed to itself. 223
8. For details of the debates on the TNW role in Russia in the mid-1990s, see Nikolai Sokov, “<strong>Tactical</strong> <strong>Nuclear</strong> <strong>Weapons</strong> Elimination: Next Step for Arms Control,” Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 4, Winter 1997, pp. 17-27. 9. The text of the 1997 National Security Concept can be found at the Internet site of the Russian Security Council, available from www.armscontrol.ru/start/rus/docs/snconold.htm. The 1998 decisions included the decree by Boris Yeltsin titled “On urgent measures toward reforming the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation” (July 1997), <strong>and</strong> two Security Council documents: “The Concept of Development of <strong>Nuclear</strong> Forces until 2010” <strong>and</strong> “The Foundations (Concept) of State Policy in the Area of Defense Development until 2005” (July-August 1998). The texts of these documents are classified, but their general thrust could be gleaned from newspaper publications. See “Sovet Bezopasnosti RF Reshil Sokhranit Trekhkomponentnyi Sostav Strategicheskikh Yadernykh Sil,” Interfax, No. 4, July 3, 1998; “Russia to be Major <strong>Nuclear</strong> Power in 3d Millennium—Official,” ITAR-TASS, July 3, 1998; Ivan Safronov <strong>and</strong> Ilya Bulavinov, “Boris Yeltsin Podnyal Yadernyi Shchit,” Kommersant-Daily, July 4, 1998; Yuri Golotuyk, “Yadernoe Razoruzhenie Neizbezhno,” Russkii Telegraph, July 11, 1998; Yuri Golotuyk, “Moskva Skorrektirovala Svoi Yadernye Argumenty,” Russkii Telegraph, July 4, 1998; Anatoli Yurkin, “Perspektivy Voennogo Stroitelstva,” Krasnaya Zvezda, August 5, 1998, pp. 1, 3; Oleg Falichev, “Vpervye So Vremeni Miluykovskikh Reform,” Krasnaya Zvezda, August 18, 1998, pp. 1-2. 10. For an analysis of nuclear policy-related elements of the 2000 National Security Concept <strong>and</strong> Military Doctrine, see Nikolai Sokov, Russia’s New National Security Concept: The <strong>Nuclear</strong> Angle, January 2000; <strong>and</strong> An Assessment of the Draft Russian Military Doctrine, October 1999. 11. “Aktualnye Zadachi Razvitiya Vooruzhennykh Sil RF” (“Current Tasks for the Development of the Russian Federation’s Armed Forces”), Report of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, October 2, 2003. 12. Ibid., p. 32. 224
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***** Comments pertaining to this r
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6. Aspects of the Current Russian P
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21. Arms Control after START ......
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this incredible amount of destructi
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hundreds of U.S. weapons (a
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TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND <stron
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Security was an additional problem.
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embraced lessons learned from the 1
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I learned here of some of the deep
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CHAPTER 1 THE HISTORICAL CONTEXT Ri
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as just another kind of military op
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it, the Allies were unlikely to agr
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• Assets for future arms control
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ments are dissimilar. Whereas Europ
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CHAPTER 2 TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS
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ombs in Europe as strategic weapons
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experiences of war, in a less moral
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Strangelovian image for NAT
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II. 1953-1963. U.S. STRATEGIC SUPER
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• For what political purposes mig
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widely heralded move to flexible re
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clear sentiment for the Alliance <s
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Nevertheless, Germany underst<stron
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first in order to break up his forc
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saw Pact lines to interdict strateg
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The Democratic People’s Republic
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given release authority by the Sovi
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III. 1963-1967. EMERGING DOUBTS CON
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esponse: without it, the Allies wer
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ous arms control groups argue that
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Why Did NATO Keep
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France were equipped with nuclear w
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slowly changing deterrence ethos wa
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through widespread protests, openly
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although it decided that the remain
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e concealed by the regular annual <
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However, concerned by the post-Viet
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ously create a public and</
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ers have repeatedly reemphasized th
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judged to generate (but which may n
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5. “The position we have reached
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24. Marc Trachtenberg, A Constructe
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49. Catherine McArdle Kelleher, “
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76. Joseph F. Pilat and</st
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100. Corroborated by Catherine Kell
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CHAPTER 3 U.S. NUCLEAR WEAPONS POLI
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the North Atlantic Treaty Organizat
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delivery exercised a dominant influ
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conventional strength. 14 In the Pa
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the capability to employ such weapo
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ground-launched short-range nuclear
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curity policy in Asia, and<
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lies. 31 At the strategic a
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mediate postwar period. Washington
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ons throughout the Cold War <strong
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These shifts are the products both
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power and the prol
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7. Robert S. Norris et al., “Wher
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frey A. Larsen and
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near Central Europe and</st
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47. Available from armedservices.ho
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CHAPTER 4 RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVES ON T
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Russian Navy would be particularly
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ers to produce income from Russian
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3. These are the results of polls o
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TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND THE FE
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Russia’s anticipated spending of
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arms race was on, and</stro
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heads; and improve
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national security strategy. Current
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On April 23, 1999, Viktor Nikolaevi
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First of all, the word “obligatio
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By 2004, a young scholar, Aleksei F
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time, it seems to believe that, in
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ence as the chief factor that limit
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their modernization as a response.
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in areas affecting Russian national
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armed struggle at sea for the perio
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centric warfare. Citing both Chines
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tation to maintain security <strong
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PROSPECTS FOR A U.S.-RUSSIAN TREATY
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uild a missile defense system in so
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10. “Ktokhitree: Mir vstupil v er
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36. Sergei Karaganov “Global Zero
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CHAPTER 6 ASPECTS OF THE CURRENT RU
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NATO countries. Du
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allistic missile defense (BMD), <st
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Meanwhile, the factor of China (wit
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Today, in fact, only the nuclear um
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By the same logic, preventing a pot
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diminishes still further Russian in
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1989 —April 12 SHORT-RANGE NUCLEA
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where Russian interest is higher th
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on a modified CFE regime an
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9. See Miles A. Pomper, William Pot
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Paper, No. 7, Washington, DC: Arms
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eventual elimination are considered
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In the post-bipolar international s
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levels of enthusiasm, most European
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DIFFERING THREAT ASSESSMENTS AND AL
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troops in 2008 and
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that NATO as a who
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distinction between tactical <stron
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12. Author’s interview with a sen
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19. NATO’s argum
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31. Valasek, p. 24. 32. Lukasz Kule
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CHAPTER 13 EUROPE, NATO</st
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not reached a clear consensus on wh
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In an environment in which there is
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ing of signals within the Alliance.
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NATO foreign minis
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mean that the strategic lan
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weapon holdings did not exceed 225
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attitude to how nuclear weapons wil
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ghanistan will also help to determi
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German territory. On the other h<st
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PART IV AMERICAN PERSPECTIVES 321
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siles and aircraft
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ment of U.S. nuclear weapons in Eur
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that these weapons still have a rol
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with nuclear weapons, and</
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homeland. The trad
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However, if the United States were
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(estimated, to be 150-200) of U.S.
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er-projection capabilities, <strong
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ventional weapons. Unlike the perce
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any U.S. NSNWs deployed or stored i
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ganizational changes in recent year
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It is unrealistic to believe, as so
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Prague agenda with its goal of glob
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has a different set of critical qua
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ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 15 1. Assistant
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15. Ibid., p. xii. 16. Ibid. 17. Ib
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Hans M. Kristensen, “Nucl
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52. See Jeffrey A. Larsen a
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Hence, whatever course the Allies s
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self from the conflict. Of course,
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arguments by and l
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cal to the later stages of this cam
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The fundamentals of Smart Defense a
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deterrence and def
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ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 16 1. These are
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CHAPTER 17 ROLE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS
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Two of the greatest enduring threat
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a monkey to an altitude of 120 km (
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including a “dual capable” (nuc
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By the end of the Cold War, in 1991
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U.S. Focus and Int
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eset by conflict, deterrence seeks
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Command in 2010. H
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y arms control and
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into account the disparity between
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Furthermore, the United States <str
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table price human beings must pay t
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16. See www.tradereform.org/wp-cont
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PART V ARMS CONTROL AS AN OPTION 40
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ise as a vehicle for regulating <st
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arms control to address the perceiv
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posite discussion within the contex
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CHAPTER 19 ARMS CONTROL OPTIONS FOR
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U.S. AND RUSSIAN NON-STRATEGIC NUCL
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into the discussion is that it woul
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get missiles on NATO</stron
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ficials have announced a major 10-y
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the INF Treaty banned all INF missi
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Others have also suggested that tra
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ample of the latter, in 1991 Presid
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certain percentage, say 50 percent.
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heads. Nondeployed strategic warhea
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ily in Washington’s judgment, <st
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publican president is less clear at
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10. “Strategic Concept for the De
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CHAPTER 20 TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS
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Most of the attempted adaptation <s
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ight metric (and t
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weapons (NSNWs)? A look at the key
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other, has ever gained serious cons
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who occasionally address other thea
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most of the other parties. Russia
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security concerns and</stro
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objectives and out
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CHAPTER 21 ARMS CONTROL AFTER START
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withdrawal as part of a wider disen
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ience with the Anti-Ballistic Missi
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strengthening of first-strike stabi
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ons away from the territory of <str
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is the relationship between them th
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would have added credibility were i
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still making a substantial contribu
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tionship between transparency <stro
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NATO WILL SURVIVE
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As in the past, the most likely cau
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summit on the effective control of
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deployed to Europe to approximately
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NATO policymakers.
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One of the alliances, the Warsaw Pa
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Hungary, and Slova
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statement at the conclusion of the
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anti-ballistic missiles on Polish t
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Following the meeting of OSCE forei
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inform Russia of any significant ch
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are difficult to correlate complete
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West. President Obama noted such a
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ing agreements. It must also combin
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19. Ibid. 20. Lachowski, p. 5. 21.
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PART VI CONCLUSION 505
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that means. Today, this seems to be
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more prosaic level, the presence of
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fence and Foreign
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JEFFREY A. LARSEN is a Senior Scien
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GUY B. ROBERTS was until recently <
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
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