Tactical Nuclear Weapons and NATO.pdf - Program on Strategic ...

In an environment in which there is not the strategic
imperative of the Cold War, populations are likely,
if asked to think about it, to be at least as hostile to
the continued hosting of such weapons as some were
then. In this environment, an argument for their retention
based chiefly on politics, to keep <strong>NATO</strong> together,
is unlikely to prove durable, especially in the absence
of a consensus that these weapons still have a credible
<strong>and</strong> vital military role <strong>and</strong> rationale. Furthermore, it
is a troubling paradox for <strong>NATO</strong> that touting tactical
nuclear weapons (TNWs) as continuing symbols of Alliance
cohesion <strong>and</strong> solidarity, when raising a debate
on their future or even highlighting their continued
presence, represents a potential risk to that cohesion.
Basing the retention of TNWs in Europe on the
need to address a potential proliferation cascade in
the rest of the world seems equally problematic from
a public opinion perspective. It is doubtful whether
this argument will really have much traction in most
of Europe; that is, unless there is a sudden shocking
turn of events in the long-running Iran st<strong>and</strong>-off,
which is, of course, not beyond the realm of possibility.
Unfortunately, absent such a development, the
proliferation issue, the specter of more <strong>and</strong> more menacing
nuclear weapons states or groups, could very
well be perceived in the minds of much of European
opinion as an argument in favor of <strong>NATO</strong> stepping
up its disarmament agenda, <strong>and</strong> throwing the TNWs
into that pot as a positive indication of the Alliance’s
disarmament commitment. In fact, such an outcome is
just as likely as the Alliance’s hope that public opinion
will favor tactical nuke retention as a hedge against an
uncertain world. In the current climate of public opinion
in Europe on matters nuclear, the plausibility of
forward-deployed U.S. nuclear weapons as a counter
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