Tactical Nuclear Weapons and NATO.pdf - Program on Strategic ...

uild a missile defense system in southern <strong>and</strong> eastern
Europe <strong>and</strong> maintaining its TNWs in Europe, make
successful negotiations unlikely.
The difficulties associated with negotiating these
issues foreshadowed the crisis of November 2011. Negotiations
on TNWs will have to wait for the current
crisis of U.S.-Russian relations to pass, which means
sometime after the 2012 presidential elections in Russia
<strong>and</strong> the United States. A successful approach will
have to take into account the complexity of the political-military
challenges, dangers, <strong>and</strong> threats as Russia’s
government sees them in Eurasia. That may create
too complex a geopolitical forum for the conduct of
actual negotiations because Russia will not join them if
it sees them seeking to put Russia in a position where
it will have to choose between the Euro-Atlantic world
<strong>and</strong> that of a Far East dominated by China. By every
means possible, Russia will seek to avoid the dilemma
of choice here. As long as Russia’s government considers
its own conventional forces insufficient <strong>and</strong>/or
ineffective in the defense of Russia’s periphery, TNWs
will remain the means of choice to de-escalate such
conflicts. It is, of course, not altogether clear here that
the Russian Wol<strong>and</strong> can avoid being drawn into an
exp<strong>and</strong>ing conflict because of the actions of his “little
demons.”
ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 5
1. This chapter is a continuation of work by this author which
began a decade ago after Zapad-99 <strong>and</strong> has continued with greater
intensity over the last 2 years. The chapter draws upon that body
of work <strong>and</strong> extends the analysis. The relevant works include:
“Asian Drivers of Russia’s <strong>Nuclear</strong> Force Posture,” Nonproliferation
Policy Education Center, August 2010; “Russia’s <strong>Nuclear</strong>
Posture <strong>and</strong> the Threat That Dare not Speak Its Name,” Stephen
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