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uild a missile defense system in southern <strong>and</strong> eastern Europe <strong>and</strong> maintaining its TNWs in Europe, make successful negotiations unlikely. The difficulties associated with negotiating these issues foreshadowed the crisis of November 2011. Negotiations on TNWs will have to wait for the current crisis of U.S.-Russian relations to pass, which means sometime after the 2012 presidential elections in Russia <strong>and</strong> the United States. A successful approach will have to take into account the complexity of the political-military challenges, dangers, <strong>and</strong> threats as Russia’s government sees them in Eurasia. That may create too complex a geopolitical forum for the conduct of actual negotiations because Russia will not join them if it sees them seeking to put Russia in a position where it will have to choose between the Euro-Atlantic world <strong>and</strong> that of a Far East dominated by China. By every means possible, Russia will seek to avoid the dilemma of choice here. As long as Russia’s government considers its own conventional forces insufficient <strong>and</strong>/or ineffective in the defense of Russia’s periphery, TNWs will remain the means of choice to de-escalate such conflicts. It is, of course, not altogether clear here that the Russian Wol<strong>and</strong> can avoid being drawn into an exp<strong>and</strong>ing conflict because of the actions of his “little demons.” ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 5 1. This chapter is a continuation of work by this author which began a decade ago after Zapad-99 <strong>and</strong> has continued with greater intensity over the last 2 years. The chapter draws upon that body of work <strong>and</strong> extends the analysis. The relevant works include: “Asian Drivers of Russia’s <strong>Nuclear</strong> Force Posture,” Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, August 2010; “Russia’s <strong>Nuclear</strong> Posture <strong>and</strong> the Threat That Dare not Speak Its Name,” Stephen 149
Blank, ed., Russian <strong>Nuclear</strong> <strong>Weapons</strong>: Past, Present <strong>and</strong> Future, Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U. S. Army War College, 2011, pp. 459-504; Russian <strong>Nuclear</strong> Posture <strong>and</strong> Policies at a <strong>NATO</strong>- Estonian Ministry of Defense Conference on Adapting <strong>NATO</strong>’s Deterrence Posture: The Alliance’s New Strategic Concept <strong>and</strong> Implications for <strong>Nuclear</strong> Policy, Non-Proliferation, Arms Control, <strong>and</strong> Disarmament, in Tallinn, Estonia; <strong>and</strong> “Russia’s Future Arms Control Agenda <strong>and</strong> Posture,” Paper delivered at Conference on Russia, sponsored by the Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, Carlisle, PA, September 26-27, 2011. 2. “Ktokhitree: Mir vstupil verugonkiiadernykhvooruzhenii,” Lenta.Ru, November 1, 2011. 3. “U.S. wants to step up dialogue with Russia on non-strategic weapons,” Russia Today, January 20, 2011, available from rt.com/politics/russia-usa-arms-control/. 4. “No ABM Cooperation without Guarantees–Lavrov,” RIA Novosti, October 21, 2011. 5. Robert Bridge, “<strong>NATO</strong> gives Russia ‘nyet’ on missile defense,” Russia Today, October 25, 2011. 6. “Lavrov states no progress in Russia-<strong>NATO</strong> talks on ABM,” ITAR-TASS, October 31, 2011. 7. Richard Norton-Taylor, “<strong>Nuclear</strong> Powers Plan <strong>Weapons</strong> Spending Spree, Report Finds,” Guardian.co.uk, October 30, 2011; for the text of the BASIC Trident Commission paper, see Ian Kearns, “Beyond the United Kingdom: Trends in the Other <strong>Nuclear</strong> Armed States,” BASIC Trident Commission, October 30, 2011. 8. Ian Kearns, “Beyond the UK: Trends in the Other <strong>Nuclear</strong> Armed States,” British-American Security Information Council, Trident Commission, 2011, available from www.basicint.org/ publications/dr-ian-kearns-trident-commission-consultant/2011/ beyond-uk-trends-other-nuclear-armed-s. 9. “Britanskievoennyeekspertyuvereny: Mir uzhevstupil v novuiuiadernuiugonku,” Trud, October 31, 2011. 150
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***** Comments pertaining to this r
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6. Aspects of the Current Russian P
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21. Arms Control after START ......
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this incredible amount of destructi
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hundreds of U.S. weapons (a
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TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND <stron
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Security was an additional problem.
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embraced lessons learned from the 1
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I learned here of some of the deep
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CHAPTER 1 THE HISTORICAL CONTEXT Ri
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as just another kind of military op
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it, the Allies were unlikely to agr
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• Assets for future arms control
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ments are dissimilar. Whereas Europ
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CHAPTER 2 TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS
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ombs in Europe as strategic weapons
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experiences of war, in a less moral
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Strangelovian image for NAT
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II. 1953-1963. U.S. STRATEGIC SUPER
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• For what political purposes mig
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widely heralded move to flexible re
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clear sentiment for the Alliance <s
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Nevertheless, Germany underst<stron
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first in order to break up his forc
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saw Pact lines to interdict strateg
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The Democratic People’s Republic
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given release authority by the Sovi
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III. 1963-1967. EMERGING DOUBTS CON
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esponse: without it, the Allies wer
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ous arms control groups argue that
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Why Did NATO Keep
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France were equipped with nuclear w
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slowly changing deterrence ethos wa
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through widespread protests, openly
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although it decided that the remain
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e concealed by the regular annual <
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However, concerned by the post-Viet
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ously create a public and</
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ers have repeatedly reemphasized th
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judged to generate (but which may n
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5. “The position we have reached
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24. Marc Trachtenberg, A Constructe
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49. Catherine McArdle Kelleher, “
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76. Joseph F. Pilat and</st
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100. Corroborated by Catherine Kell
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CHAPTER 3 U.S. NUCLEAR WEAPONS POLI
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the North Atlantic Treaty Organizat
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delivery exercised a dominant influ
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conventional strength. 14 In the Pa
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the capability to employ such weapo
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ground-launched short-range nuclear
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curity policy in Asia, and<
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lies. 31 At the strategic a
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mediate postwar period. Washington
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ons throughout the Cold War <strong
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These shifts are the products both
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power and the prol
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CHAPTER 8 RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVES ON N
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Yet these concerns are most likely
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Bush and Mikhail G
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anyone’s guess. As mentioned abov
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STRATEGY Russian NSNWs attracted in
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lored damage” (zadannyi ushcherb)
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intrigue pertaining to nuclear weap
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eaching political, military, <stron
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Inertia. The longer this position i
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In a similar vein, the Foreign Mini
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THE RUSSIAN NSNW POSITION: LIMITS A
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tated to what it calls an “integr
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ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 8 1. “Zayavlen
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13. The 12th Main Department of the
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PART III EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVES 227
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ope is illustrative of a more funda
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maintaining these weapons or their
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CHAPTER 10 THE ROLE AND PLACE OF TA
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positions, preoccupations,
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cohesion and solid
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ferred to by the now familiar term
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The second track is an effort to de
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The United States. The traditional
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the nuclear discussions apply only
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supported by other members. However
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cerning its nuclear posture. On the
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tial expert on the dangers of nucle
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8. This is reminiscent of the posit
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a London or Paris perspective, thei
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One of the most important factors w
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mer Vice-Chairman of the Joint Chie
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Armed Service Air and</stro
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Nunn in 2007 and 2
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that the debate on a nuclear-free w
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modify the Alliance’s nuclear pos
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years. Signs of progress include th
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on a modified CFE regime an
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9. See Miles A. Pomper, William Pot
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Paper, No. 7, Washington, DC: Arms
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eventual elimination are considered
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In the post-bipolar international s
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levels of enthusiasm, most European
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DIFFERING THREAT ASSESSMENTS AND AL
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troops in 2008 and
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that NATO as a who
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distinction between tactical <stron
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12. Author’s interview with a sen
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19. NATO’s argum
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31. Valasek, p. 24. 32. Lukasz Kule
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CHAPTER 13 EUROPE, NATO</st
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not reached a clear consensus on wh
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In an environment in which there is
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ing of signals within the Alliance.
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NATO foreign minis
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mean that the strategic lan
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weapon holdings did not exceed 225
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attitude to how nuclear weapons wil
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ghanistan will also help to determi
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German territory. On the other h<st
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PART IV AMERICAN PERSPECTIVES 321
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siles and aircraft
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ment of U.S. nuclear weapons in Eur
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that these weapons still have a rol
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with nuclear weapons, and</
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homeland. The trad
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However, if the United States were
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(estimated, to be 150-200) of U.S.
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er-projection capabilities, <strong
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ventional weapons. Unlike the perce
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any U.S. NSNWs deployed or stored i
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ganizational changes in recent year
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It is unrealistic to believe, as so
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Prague agenda with its goal of glob
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has a different set of critical qua
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ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 15 1. Assistant
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15. Ibid., p. xii. 16. Ibid. 17. Ib
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Hans M. Kristensen, “Nucl
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52. See Jeffrey A. Larsen a
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Hence, whatever course the Allies s
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self from the conflict. Of course,
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arguments by and l
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cal to the later stages of this cam
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The fundamentals of Smart Defense a
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deterrence and def
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ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 16 1. These are
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CHAPTER 17 ROLE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS
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Two of the greatest enduring threat
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a monkey to an altitude of 120 km (
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including a “dual capable” (nuc
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By the end of the Cold War, in 1991
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U.S. Focus and Int
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eset by conflict, deterrence seeks
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Command in 2010. H
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y arms control and
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into account the disparity between
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Furthermore, the United States <str
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table price human beings must pay t
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16. See www.tradereform.org/wp-cont
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PART V ARMS CONTROL AS AN OPTION 40
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ise as a vehicle for regulating <st
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arms control to address the perceiv
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posite discussion within the contex
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CHAPTER 19 ARMS CONTROL OPTIONS FOR
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U.S. AND RUSSIAN NON-STRATEGIC NUCL
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into the discussion is that it woul
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get missiles on NATO</stron
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ficials have announced a major 10-y
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the INF Treaty banned all INF missi
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Others have also suggested that tra
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ample of the latter, in 1991 Presid
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certain percentage, say 50 percent.
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heads. Nondeployed strategic warhea
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ily in Washington’s judgment, <st
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publican president is less clear at
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10. “Strategic Concept for the De
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CHAPTER 20 TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS
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Most of the attempted adaptation <s
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ight metric (and t
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weapons (NSNWs)? A look at the key
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other, has ever gained serious cons
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who occasionally address other thea
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most of the other parties. Russia
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security concerns and</stro
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objectives and out
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CHAPTER 21 ARMS CONTROL AFTER START
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withdrawal as part of a wider disen
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ience with the Anti-Ballistic Missi
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strengthening of first-strike stabi
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ons away from the territory of <str
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is the relationship between them th
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would have added credibility were i
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still making a substantial contribu
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tionship between transparency <stro
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NATO WILL SURVIVE
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As in the past, the most likely cau
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summit on the effective control of
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deployed to Europe to approximately
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NATO policymakers.
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One of the alliances, the Warsaw Pa
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Hungary, and Slova
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statement at the conclusion of the
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anti-ballistic missiles on Polish t
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Following the meeting of OSCE forei
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inform Russia of any significant ch
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are difficult to correlate complete
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West. President Obama noted such a
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ing agreements. It must also combin
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19. Ibid. 20. Lachowski, p. 5. 21.
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PART VI CONCLUSION 505
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that means. Today, this seems to be
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more prosaic level, the presence of
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fence and Foreign
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JEFFREY A. LARSEN is a Senior Scien
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GUY B. ROBERTS was until recently <
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
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