Tactical Nuclear Weapons and NATO.pdf - Program on Strategic ...

Two of the greatest enduring threats to Alliance
safety <strong>and</strong> security in the next 10 to 15 years are weapons
of mass destruction (WMD) terrorism <strong>and</strong> WMD
proliferation. As the U.S. WMD commission report
states, 4 <strong>and</strong> as likewise reflected in <strong>NATO</strong>’s Comprehensive
Strategic Level Policy for Preventing the
Proliferation of WMD, proliferation of such weapons
is inevitable, presenting increased risks to Allied security
<strong>and</strong> strategic interests. We can slow <strong>and</strong> impede
WMD proliferation, but it will happen. This will in
turn increase the likelihood of WMD terrorism. And
of course we face the prospect of ballistic missile proliferation,
as in Iran <strong>and</strong> North Korea.
In addition to the enduring challenges of such
proliferation, uncertainties about the future relationship
with Russia continue to worry eastern European
members of the Alliance. While no nation is considered
an adversary of the Alliance, the proliferation
threat is real <strong>and</strong> growing, <strong>and</strong> future conventional attacks
against <strong>NATO</strong> forces or territory cannot be ruled
out.
While some <strong>NATO</strong> Allies continue to press for
finding a path to “global nuclear zero” (more on that
later), press reports in Russia state that it will triple
its strategic missile production between the years 2011
<strong>and</strong> 2015. Russia is deploying new silo-based <strong>and</strong> mobile
inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) <strong>and</strong> a
new ballistic missile submarine with an advanced missile.
By 2018, Russia plans to deploy a new “heavy”
ICBM, which reportedly can carry 10-15 nuclear warheads.
New advanced warheads are being deployed
on other weapons, including those of low yield. Russia
today enjoys more than a 10-1 advantage in tactical
or non-strategic nuclear weapons (NSNWs) over
the United States. While the United States pushed the
“reset” button with Russia on cooperation <strong>and</strong> part-
377