Tactical Nuclear Weapons and NATO.pdf - Program on Strategic ...

In general, <strong>NATO</strong> calculations of the strategic balance
in Europe were carried out largely as part of a
military “net assessment” process. The judgments of
the Soviet leadership involved more complex correlation
of forces analysis based on the psychological
<strong>and</strong> political impacts of nuclear deployments. By the
1970s, <strong>NATO</strong> allies began to realize that the Soviets
were not seeking a stable military balance to facilitate
further détente, but instead were exploiting East West
rapprochement as a means of undermining support
among Western Alliance members for its defense policies,
especially as to nuclear weapon types, holdings,
<strong>and</strong> doctrine. 98 But while Soviet calculations were
more sophisticated <strong>and</strong> multidimensional, their theories
turned out to be inadequate empirical guides to
achievable politico-military outcomes.
The politics of this so-called targets crisis brought
the first significant change to the TNW stockpile,
flowing from the 1979 <strong>NATO</strong> ministerial decision in
Brussels, Belgium, to introduce two INF systems, the
Pershing IIs <strong>and</strong> the Gryphon ground-launched cruise
missiles (GLCMs), while simultaneously seeking an
arms control agreement that would limit the overall
INF category. Equivalent numbers of U.S. Pershing
1As <strong>and</strong> Nike Hercules were withdrawn, together
with 1,000 surplus U.S. Honest John warheads, decreasing
the <strong>NATO</strong> nuclear stockpile to around 6,000,
certainly a less politically significant number. 99
The use of TNWs as symbols of good faith, the lubricating
small change of nuclear arms control, was
repeated in Montebello in October 1983, when <strong>NATO</strong>
Ministers reaffirmed their determination to persist
with the dual-track decision, despite Soviet obduracy
in the Geneva talks, which would close in the next
month. This time <strong>NATO</strong> opted to give up 1,400 TNWs,
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