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the General Staff Nikolai Makarov on the one-half figure; health issues among recruits are discussed on p. 209. 14. Fyodor Lukyanov, “After Tskhinvali,” Vremya novostei, August 11, 2008, p. 1, as translated in Current Digest of the Russian Press, Vol. 60, No. 32, September 2, 2008, p. 4, available from dlib. eastview.com/browse/doc/20437948. 15. Anton Lavrov, “Timeline of Russian-Georgian Hostilities in August 2008,” in Ruslan Pukhov, ed., The Tanks of August, Foreword by David Glanz, Moscow, Russia: Center for Analysis of Strategies <strong>and</strong> Technologies, 2010, p. 40. 16. See also The Military Balance, 2009, London, UK: International Institute for Strategic Studies, pp. 210-212, for an analysis of Russian military performance. 17. Anton Lavrov, “Russian Air Losses in the Five-Day War Against Georgia,” in Pukhov, The Tanks of August, pp. 99, 104. Lavrov also notes that supposed “Georgian” aircraft shown as shot down on Russian television were actually Russian ones. 18. Ibid., pp. 99, 105. 19. Sergey Guneev, “Russia to reform its armed forces by 2020—defense minister,” as reported in RIA Novosti, available from en.rian.ru/mlitary_news/20101031/161152980.html. 20. Russian Analytical Digest, No. 88, November 29, 2010, p. 4. Bank of Finl<strong>and</strong> data. 21. See www.nato.int/lisbon2010/strategic-concept-2010-eng.<strong>pdf</strong>. 22. See p. 25, www.senate.gov/general/search/search_cfm.cfm? q=REsolution+on+Advice+<strong>and</strong>+Consent&x=16&y=9&site=default_ collection&num=10&filter=0. 23. All figures concerning Russian tactical nuclear stockpiles are expert estimates. 24. “Tovarishchi potentsial’nye protivniki—Nachal’nik rossiiskogo Genshtaba rasskazal inostrannym voennym attache o re- 197
forme armii,” Vremia novostei, No. 230, December 12, 2008, available from www.vremya.ru/2008/230/4/218862.html. 25. Voennaia doktrina Rossiiskoi Federatsii, February 5, 2010, para. 22, available from news.kremlin.ru/ref_notes/461. 26. Morskaya doktrina Rossiiskoi Federatsii na period do 2020 goda, July 27, 2001, Section I-1, available from www.scrf.gov.ru/ documents/34.html. 27. Available from www.reachingcriticalwill.org/political/cd/ cdindex.html. 28. Statement of the President of the United States of America on November 13, 2001, available from www.armscontrol.org/ factsheets/sort-glance#Note3. 198
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***** Comments pertaining to this r
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6. Aspects of the Current Russian P
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21. Arms Control after START ......
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this incredible amount of destructi
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hundreds of U.S. weapons (a
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TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND <stron
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Security was an additional problem.
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embraced lessons learned from the 1
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I learned here of some of the deep
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CHAPTER 1 THE HISTORICAL CONTEXT Ri
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as just another kind of military op
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it, the Allies were unlikely to agr
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• Assets for future arms control
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ments are dissimilar. Whereas Europ
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CHAPTER 2 TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS
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ombs in Europe as strategic weapons
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experiences of war, in a less moral
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Strangelovian image for NAT
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II. 1953-1963. U.S. STRATEGIC SUPER
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• For what political purposes mig
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widely heralded move to flexible re
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clear sentiment for the Alliance <s
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Nevertheless, Germany underst<stron
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first in order to break up his forc
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saw Pact lines to interdict strateg
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The Democratic People’s Republic
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given release authority by the Sovi
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III. 1963-1967. EMERGING DOUBTS CON
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esponse: without it, the Allies wer
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ous arms control groups argue that
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Why Did NATO Keep
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France were equipped with nuclear w
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slowly changing deterrence ethos wa
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through widespread protests, openly
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although it decided that the remain
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e concealed by the regular annual <
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However, concerned by the post-Viet
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ously create a public and</
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ers have repeatedly reemphasized th
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judged to generate (but which may n
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5. “The position we have reached
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24. Marc Trachtenberg, A Constructe
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49. Catherine McArdle Kelleher, “
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76. Joseph F. Pilat and</st
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100. Corroborated by Catherine Kell
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CHAPTER 3 U.S. NUCLEAR WEAPONS POLI
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the North Atlantic Treaty Organizat
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delivery exercised a dominant influ
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conventional strength. 14 In the Pa
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the capability to employ such weapo
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ground-launched short-range nuclear
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curity policy in Asia, and<
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lies. 31 At the strategic a
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mediate postwar period. Washington
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ons throughout the Cold War <strong
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These shifts are the products both
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power and the prol
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7. Robert S. Norris et al., “Wher
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frey A. Larsen and
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near Central Europe and</st
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47. Available from armedservices.ho
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CHAPTER 4 RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVES ON T
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Russian Navy would be particularly
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ers to produce income from Russian
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3. These are the results of polls o
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TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND THE FE
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Russia’s anticipated spending of
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arms race was on, and</stro
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heads; and improve
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national security strategy. Current
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On April 23, 1999, Viktor Nikolaevi
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First of all, the word “obligatio
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By 2004, a young scholar, Aleksei F
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time, it seems to believe that, in
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ence as the chief factor that limit
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their modernization as a response.
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in areas affecting Russian national
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armed struggle at sea for the perio
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centric warfare. Citing both Chines
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tation to maintain security <strong
Page 168 and 169: PROSPECTS FOR A U.S.-RUSSIAN TREATY
Page 170 and 171: uild a missile defense system in so
Page 172 and 173: 10. “Ktokhitree: Mir vstupil v er
Page 174 and 175: 36. Sergei Karaganov “Global Zero
Page 176 and 177: CHAPTER 6 ASPECTS OF THE CURRENT RU
Page 178 and 179: NATO countries. Du
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Page 182 and 183: Meanwhile, the factor of China (wit
Page 184 and 185: Today, in fact, only the nuclear um
Page 186 and 187: By the same logic, preventing a pot
Page 188 and 189: diminishes still further Russian in
Page 190 and 191: 1989 —April 12 SHORT-RANGE NUCLEA
Page 192 and 193: where Russian interest is higher th
Page 194 and 195: 6. Kozin, “Five obstacles.” 7.
Page 196 and 197: CHAPTER 7 INFLUENCES ON RUSSIAN POL
Page 198 and 199: general and its ow
Page 200 and 201: are show of unanimity from nearly a
Page 202 and 203: ally; it is just that others are ac
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Page 206 and 207: armor, like T-62 tanks and<
Page 208 and 209: Reducing Non-Strategic Nucl
Page 210 and 211: The Russian inventory has been redu
Page 212 and 213: Under present conditions, the range
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Page 220 and 221: CHAPTER 8 RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVES ON N
Page 222 and 223: Yet these concerns are most likely
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Page 226 and 227: anyone’s guess. As mentioned abov
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Page 232 and 233: intrigue pertaining to nuclear weap
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Page 238 and 239: In a similar vein, the Foreign Mini
Page 240 and 241: THE RUSSIAN NSNW POSITION: LIMITS A
Page 242 and 243: tated to what it calls an “integr
Page 244 and 245: ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 8 1. “Zayavlen
Page 246 and 247: 13. The 12th Main Department of the
Page 248: PART III EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVES 227
Page 251 and 252: ope is illustrative of a more funda
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Page 258 and 259: positions, preoccupations,
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Page 262 and 263: ferred to by the now familiar term
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the nuclear discussions apply only
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supported by other members. However
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cerning its nuclear posture. On the
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tial expert on the dangers of nucle
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8. This is reminiscent of the posit
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a London or Paris perspective, thei
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One of the most important factors w
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mer Vice-Chairman of the Joint Chie
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Armed Service Air and</stro
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Nunn in 2007 and 2
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that the debate on a nuclear-free w
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modify the Alliance’s nuclear pos
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years. Signs of progress include th
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on a modified CFE regime an
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9. See Miles A. Pomper, William Pot
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Paper, No. 7, Washington, DC: Arms
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eventual elimination are considered
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In the post-bipolar international s
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levels of enthusiasm, most European
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DIFFERING THREAT ASSESSMENTS AND AL
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troops in 2008 and
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that NATO as a who
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distinction between tactical <stron
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12. Author’s interview with a sen
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19. NATO’s argum
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31. Valasek, p. 24. 32. Lukasz Kule
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CHAPTER 13 EUROPE, NATO</st
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not reached a clear consensus on wh
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In an environment in which there is
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ing of signals within the Alliance.
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NATO foreign minis
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mean that the strategic lan
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weapon holdings did not exceed 225
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attitude to how nuclear weapons wil
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ghanistan will also help to determi
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German territory. On the other h<st
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PART IV AMERICAN PERSPECTIVES 321
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siles and aircraft
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ment of U.S. nuclear weapons in Eur
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that these weapons still have a rol
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with nuclear weapons, and</
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homeland. The trad
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However, if the United States were
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(estimated, to be 150-200) of U.S.
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er-projection capabilities, <strong
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ventional weapons. Unlike the perce
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any U.S. NSNWs deployed or stored i
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ganizational changes in recent year
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It is unrealistic to believe, as so
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Prague agenda with its goal of glob
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has a different set of critical qua
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ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 15 1. Assistant
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15. Ibid., p. xii. 16. Ibid. 17. Ib
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Hans M. Kristensen, “Nucl
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52. See Jeffrey A. Larsen a
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Hence, whatever course the Allies s
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self from the conflict. Of course,
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arguments by and l
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cal to the later stages of this cam
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The fundamentals of Smart Defense a
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deterrence and def
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ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 16 1. These are
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CHAPTER 17 ROLE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS
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Two of the greatest enduring threat
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a monkey to an altitude of 120 km (
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including a “dual capable” (nuc
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By the end of the Cold War, in 1991
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U.S. Focus and Int
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eset by conflict, deterrence seeks
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Command in 2010. H
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y arms control and
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into account the disparity between
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Furthermore, the United States <str
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table price human beings must pay t
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16. See www.tradereform.org/wp-cont
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PART V ARMS CONTROL AS AN OPTION 40
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ise as a vehicle for regulating <st
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arms control to address the perceiv
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posite discussion within the contex
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CHAPTER 19 ARMS CONTROL OPTIONS FOR
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U.S. AND RUSSIAN NON-STRATEGIC NUCL
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into the discussion is that it woul
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get missiles on NATO</stron
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ficials have announced a major 10-y
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the INF Treaty banned all INF missi
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Others have also suggested that tra
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ample of the latter, in 1991 Presid
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certain percentage, say 50 percent.
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heads. Nondeployed strategic warhea
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ily in Washington’s judgment, <st
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publican president is less clear at
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10. “Strategic Concept for the De
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CHAPTER 20 TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS
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Most of the attempted adaptation <s
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ight metric (and t
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weapons (NSNWs)? A look at the key
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other, has ever gained serious cons
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who occasionally address other thea
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most of the other parties. Russia
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security concerns and</stro
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objectives and out
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CHAPTER 21 ARMS CONTROL AFTER START
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withdrawal as part of a wider disen
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ience with the Anti-Ballistic Missi
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strengthening of first-strike stabi
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ons away from the territory of <str
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is the relationship between them th
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would have added credibility were i
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still making a substantial contribu
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tionship between transparency <stro
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NATO WILL SURVIVE
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As in the past, the most likely cau
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summit on the effective control of
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deployed to Europe to approximately
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NATO policymakers.
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One of the alliances, the Warsaw Pa
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Hungary, and Slova
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statement at the conclusion of the
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anti-ballistic missiles on Polish t
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Following the meeting of OSCE forei
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inform Russia of any significant ch
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are difficult to correlate complete
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West. President Obama noted such a
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ing agreements. It must also combin
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19. Ibid. 20. Lachowski, p. 5. 21.
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PART VI CONCLUSION 505
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that means. Today, this seems to be
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more prosaic level, the presence of
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fence and Foreign
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JEFFREY A. LARSEN is a Senior Scien
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GUY B. ROBERTS was until recently <
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
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