Tactical Nuclear Weapons and NATO.pdf - Program on Strategic ...

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Ws should be multilateral, with the participation of at least all de jure nuclear states, namely, the Russian Federation, the United States, the United Kingdom (UK), France, <strong>and</strong> China. There is one more interesting aspect of the possible negotiations on reductions of TNWs. Back in 2000, the United States introduced the concept of “operationally deployed warheads” 28 into the strategic offensive weapons-reduction negotiations, thus changing the whole context of the NSNW problem. According to the provisions of the New START Treaty, operationally deployed warheads are those deployed on ICBMs <strong>and</strong> SLBMs. Air launched cruise missiles (ALCMs) <strong>and</strong> bombs in heavy bombers are not counted, since in peacetime they are kept in storage. Driven by the same logic, all tactical nuclear warheads (at least Russian) are not operationally deployed since they are also kept in storage. In this connection, it is rather difficult to imagine how the idea—discussed by Steven Pifer in Chapter 19 of this book—of a single limit covering all U.S. <strong>and</strong> Russian nuclear warheads (strategic <strong>and</strong> non-strategic, where each side is free to choose its own mix of strategic <strong>and</strong> non-strategic nuclear warheads) may be realized. The main problem for the United States with such an approach is that, if all nondeployed strategic warheads are counted, the overall disparity between Russia <strong>and</strong> the United States in nuclear weapons may disappear. As to reductions of nondeployed strategic nuclear weapons (warheads <strong>and</strong> means of delivery), they will be carried out in a natural way within the framework of implementing the New START Treaty. Since the Treaty limits the number of means of delivery, there is no practical sense in storing an excessive number of nuclear warheads. They would be militarily neutralized <strong>and</strong> too expensive to maintain. 193
CONFIDENCE-BUILDING MEASURES REGARDING NON-STRATEGIC NUCLEAR WEAPONS There are a number of possible confidence-building measures (CBMs) intended to create transparency <strong>and</strong> build trust between Russia <strong>and</strong> the West that could be agreed upon in a future agreement on NSNWs: Greater Transparency. Both Russia <strong>and</strong> the United States have a good idea of the locations where the other stores its nuclear warheads, but less solid information on numbers. Transparency is desirable by itself <strong>and</strong> essential for any negotiated limits. As one significant step, Russia <strong>and</strong> the United States might agree to disclose publicly the total number of their non-strategic nuclear warheads in storage <strong>and</strong> the number of warheads in the dismantlement queue. “Demating” Warheads from Delivery Systems. Russia has demated nuclear warheads from other nonstrategic delivery systems. The sides might consider as a CBM formal statements affirming that nuclear warheads have been demated from their non-strategic delivery systems, <strong>and</strong>, as a matter of policy, declare that there is no intention of mating non-strategic nuclear warheads with delivery systems in the future. Security of <strong>Nuclear</strong> Warheads. Russia <strong>and</strong> the United States, drawing in part on their Cooperative Threat Reduction experiences <strong>and</strong> working through the <strong>NATO</strong>-Russia Council, could conduct a joint threat assessment of the risk of terrorists penetrating a storage site <strong>and</strong> gaining access to nuclear weapons; partake in a joint security assessment of how site security might be improved to guard against such risks; <strong>and</strong> 194
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***** Comments pertaining to this r
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6. Aspects of the Current Russian P
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21. Arms Control after START ......
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this incredible amount of destructi
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hundreds of U.S. weapons (a
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TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND <stron
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Security was an additional problem.
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embraced lessons learned from the 1
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I learned here of some of the deep
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CHAPTER 1 THE HISTORICAL CONTEXT Ri
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as just another kind of military op
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it, the Allies were unlikely to agr
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• Assets for future arms control
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ments are dissimilar. Whereas Europ
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CHAPTER 2 TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS
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ombs in Europe as strategic weapons
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experiences of war, in a less moral
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Strangelovian image for NAT
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II. 1953-1963. U.S. STRATEGIC SUPER
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• For what political purposes mig
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widely heralded move to flexible re
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clear sentiment for the Alliance <s
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Nevertheless, Germany underst<stron
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first in order to break up his forc
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saw Pact lines to interdict strateg
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The Democratic People’s Republic
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given release authority by the Sovi
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III. 1963-1967. EMERGING DOUBTS CON
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esponse: without it, the Allies wer
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ous arms control groups argue that
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Why Did NATO Keep
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France were equipped with nuclear w
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slowly changing deterrence ethos wa
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through widespread protests, openly
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although it decided that the remain
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e concealed by the regular annual <
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However, concerned by the post-Viet
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ously create a public and</
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ers have repeatedly reemphasized th
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judged to generate (but which may n
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5. “The position we have reached
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24. Marc Trachtenberg, A Constructe
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49. Catherine McArdle Kelleher, “
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76. Joseph F. Pilat and</st
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100. Corroborated by Catherine Kell
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CHAPTER 3 U.S. NUCLEAR WEAPONS POLI
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the North Atlantic Treaty Organizat
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delivery exercised a dominant influ
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conventional strength. 14 In the Pa
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the capability to employ such weapo
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ground-launched short-range nuclear
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curity policy in Asia, and<
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lies. 31 At the strategic a
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mediate postwar period. Washington
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ons throughout the Cold War <strong
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These shifts are the products both
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power and the prol
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7. Robert S. Norris et al., “Wher
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frey A. Larsen and
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near Central Europe and</st
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47. Available from armedservices.ho
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CHAPTER 4 RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVES ON T
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Russian Navy would be particularly
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ers to produce income from Russian
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3. These are the results of polls o
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TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND THE FE
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Russia’s anticipated spending of
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arms race was on, and</stro
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heads; and improve
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national security strategy. Current
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On April 23, 1999, Viktor Nikolaevi
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First of all, the word “obligatio
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By 2004, a young scholar, Aleksei F
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time, it seems to believe that, in
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ence as the chief factor that limit
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their modernization as a response.
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in areas affecting Russian national
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armed struggle at sea for the perio
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Page 168 and 169: PROSPECTS FOR A U.S.-RUSSIAN TREATY
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Page 176 and 177: CHAPTER 6 ASPECTS OF THE CURRENT RU
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Page 186 and 187: By the same logic, preventing a pot
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Page 192 and 193: where Russian interest is higher th
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Page 208 and 209: Reducing Non-Strategic Nucl
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Page 220 and 221: CHAPTER 8 RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVES ON N
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Page 244 and 245: ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 8 1. “Zayavlen
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Page 248: PART III EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVES 227
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Page 258 and 259: positions, preoccupations,
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The second track is an effort to de
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The United States. The traditional
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the nuclear discussions apply only
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supported by other members. However
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cerning its nuclear posture. On the
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tial expert on the dangers of nucle
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8. This is reminiscent of the posit
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a London or Paris perspective, thei
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One of the most important factors w
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mer Vice-Chairman of the Joint Chie
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Armed Service Air and</stro
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Nunn in 2007 and 2
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that the debate on a nuclear-free w
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modify the Alliance’s nuclear pos
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years. Signs of progress include th
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on a modified CFE regime an
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9. See Miles A. Pomper, William Pot
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Paper, No. 7, Washington, DC: Arms
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eventual elimination are considered
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In the post-bipolar international s
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levels of enthusiasm, most European
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DIFFERING THREAT ASSESSMENTS AND AL
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troops in 2008 and
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that NATO as a who
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distinction between tactical <stron
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12. Author’s interview with a sen
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19. NATO’s argum
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31. Valasek, p. 24. 32. Lukasz Kule
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CHAPTER 13 EUROPE, NATO</st
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not reached a clear consensus on wh
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In an environment in which there is
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ing of signals within the Alliance.
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NATO foreign minis
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mean that the strategic lan
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weapon holdings did not exceed 225
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attitude to how nuclear weapons wil
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ghanistan will also help to determi
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German territory. On the other h<st
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PART IV AMERICAN PERSPECTIVES 321
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siles and aircraft
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ment of U.S. nuclear weapons in Eur
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that these weapons still have a rol
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with nuclear weapons, and</
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homeland. The trad
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However, if the United States were
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(estimated, to be 150-200) of U.S.
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er-projection capabilities, <strong
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ventional weapons. Unlike the perce
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any U.S. NSNWs deployed or stored i
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ganizational changes in recent year
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It is unrealistic to believe, as so
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Prague agenda with its goal of glob
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has a different set of critical qua
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ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 15 1. Assistant
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15. Ibid., p. xii. 16. Ibid. 17. Ib
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Hans M. Kristensen, “Nucl
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52. See Jeffrey A. Larsen a
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Hence, whatever course the Allies s
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self from the conflict. Of course,
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arguments by and l
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cal to the later stages of this cam
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The fundamentals of Smart Defense a
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deterrence and def
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ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 16 1. These are
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CHAPTER 17 ROLE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS
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Two of the greatest enduring threat
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a monkey to an altitude of 120 km (
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including a “dual capable” (nuc
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By the end of the Cold War, in 1991
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U.S. Focus and Int
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eset by conflict, deterrence seeks
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Command in 2010. H
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y arms control and
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into account the disparity between
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Furthermore, the United States <str
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table price human beings must pay t
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16. See www.tradereform.org/wp-cont
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PART V ARMS CONTROL AS AN OPTION 40
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ise as a vehicle for regulating <st
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arms control to address the perceiv
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posite discussion within the contex
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CHAPTER 19 ARMS CONTROL OPTIONS FOR
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U.S. AND RUSSIAN NON-STRATEGIC NUCL
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into the discussion is that it woul
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get missiles on NATO</stron
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ficials have announced a major 10-y
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the INF Treaty banned all INF missi
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Others have also suggested that tra
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ample of the latter, in 1991 Presid
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certain percentage, say 50 percent.
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heads. Nondeployed strategic warhea
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ily in Washington’s judgment, <st
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publican president is less clear at
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10. “Strategic Concept for the De
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CHAPTER 20 TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS
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Most of the attempted adaptation <s
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ight metric (and t
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weapons (NSNWs)? A look at the key
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other, has ever gained serious cons
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who occasionally address other thea
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most of the other parties. Russia
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security concerns and</stro
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objectives and out
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CHAPTER 21 ARMS CONTROL AFTER START
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withdrawal as part of a wider disen
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ience with the Anti-Ballistic Missi
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strengthening of first-strike stabi
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ons away from the territory of <str
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is the relationship between them th
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would have added credibility were i
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still making a substantial contribu
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tionship between transparency <stro
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NATO WILL SURVIVE
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As in the past, the most likely cau
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summit on the effective control of
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deployed to Europe to approximately
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NATO policymakers.
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One of the alliances, the Warsaw Pa
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Hungary, and Slova
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statement at the conclusion of the
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anti-ballistic missiles on Polish t
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Following the meeting of OSCE forei
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inform Russia of any significant ch
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are difficult to correlate complete
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West. President Obama noted such a
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ing agreements. It must also combin
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19. Ibid. 20. Lachowski, p. 5. 21.
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PART VI CONCLUSION 505
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that means. Today, this seems to be
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more prosaic level, the presence of
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fence and Foreign
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JEFFREY A. LARSEN is a Senior Scien
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GUY B. ROBERTS was until recently <
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
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