Tactical Nuclear Weapons and NATO.pdf - Program on Strategic ...

enemy would remain unchanged. Commenting on the
meteorological conditions at the time of this naval exercise,
which involved heavy mist <strong>and</strong> low visibility,
the author described Vostok 2010 as “covered in fog,”
a characterization which would better fit the confused
military <strong>and</strong> political signals being sent. 57 Finally, the
air <strong>and</strong> ground exercises near Chita <strong>and</strong> Khabarovsk
make no sense except as responses to some force
threatening the territorial integrity of Eastern Siberia
<strong>and</strong> the Far East. The only forces with the military potential
to carry out air <strong>and</strong> ground attacks that deep
into Russian territory are the PLA in support of the socalled
separatists identified in the scenario. Reflecting
on the vignettes that made up Vostok 2010, Alesk<strong>and</strong>r
Khramchikhin concluded that the hypothetical opponent
in these ground <strong>and</strong> air operations was, indeed,
Russia’s probable opponent, the PLA. He stated in his
assessment of the exercise that “the probable opponent
will defeat us in a serious conflict.” 58 [author’s italics]
The one branch of the Russian military not involved
in direct combat operations during Vostok
2010 was the Strategic Rocket Forces, which carried
out no operational launches. Its only role was defense
of its bases from terrorist attacks. However, according
to press reports, the exercise did end with a tactical
nuclear strike. As Khramchikhin noted, such a strike
was hardly in keeping with a fight against separatists
<strong>and</strong> b<strong>and</strong>its. 59 This seems to suggest that conventional
forces could not h<strong>and</strong>le such a challenge to the territorial
integrity of the Russian state in so vulnerable
a region as the Far East. However, the scenario had
left open the intervention of a powerful hypothetical
opponent in support of the separatists after their defeat
on the Onon River. <strong>Tactical</strong> nuclear weapons are
therefore expected to play the same de-escalating role
against China in the case of a local war.
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