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42. For representative arguments about the European social situation <strong>and</strong> <strong>NATO</strong> nuclear policy, see Jeffrey A. Larsen, “Future Options for <strong>NATO</strong> <strong>Nuclear</strong> Policy,” Issue Brief, The Atlantic Council, August 2011, available from www.acus.org/publication/ future-options-nato-nuclear-policy; Jeffrey A. Larsen, “The Future of U.S. Non-Strategic <strong>Nuclear</strong> <strong>Weapons</strong> <strong>and</strong> Implications for <strong>NATO</strong>: Drifting Toward the Foreseeable Future,” Final Report from the 2005-06 Manfred Wörner Fellowship, Brussels, Belgium, <strong>NATO</strong> Headquarters, December 2006, available from www.nato.int/acad/ fellow/05-06/larsen.<strong>pdf</strong>; Lunn, “<strong>NATO</strong> <strong>Nuclear</strong> Policy”; <strong>and</strong> Bruno Tertrais, “Extended Deterrence: Alive <strong>and</strong> Changing,” The Interpreter, Lowy Institute for International Policy online, February 2, 2011, available from www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2011/02/02/ Extended-Deterrence-Alive-<strong>and</strong>-changing.aspx. 43. “<strong>NATO</strong>’s <strong>Nuclear</strong> Forces in the New Security Environment,” <strong>NATO</strong> Issue Brief, Brussels, Belgium: <strong>NATO</strong> Headquarters June 2004. 44. David S. Yost, “The U.S. Debate on <strong>NATO</strong> <strong>Nuclear</strong> Deterrence,” International Affairs, Vol. 87, No. 6, 2011, pp. 1401-1438. 45. Steven Pifer, ”<strong>NATO</strong>, <strong>Nuclear</strong> <strong>Weapons</strong>, <strong>and</strong> Arms Control,” Arms Control Series No. 7, Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution, July 2011. 46. Woolf, NSNW, p. 25. 47. Ibid., p. 26. 48. Ibid. 49. Reagan SDI speech. 50. See James Acton, “Extended Deterrence <strong>and</strong> Communicating Resolve,” Strategic Insights, Vol. VIII, Issue 5, December 2009. 51. See Steven Pifer, “The Next Round: The United States <strong>and</strong> <strong>Nuclear</strong> Arms Reductions after New START,” Brookings Foreign Policy Series, Paper 4, Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution, December 2010. 357
52. See Jeffrey A. Larsen <strong>and</strong> Justin V. Anderson et al., Qualitative Characteristics of <strong>Nuclear</strong> <strong>Weapons</strong> at Lower Numbers <strong>and</strong> Implications for Arms Control, SAIC paper prepared for A5XP, Air Force Strategic Plans <strong>and</strong> Policy Division, November 2011. 53. “Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense,” Washington, DC: The White House, January 2012, available from www.defense.gov/news/Defense_Strategic_Guidance.<strong>pdf</strong>. 54. Ibid., p. 4. 55. Ibid., p. 5. For more discussion on the international challenges facing the Obama administration, particularly with respect to nuclear policy <strong>and</strong> forces, see Christopher F. Chyba <strong>and</strong> J. D. Crouch, “Underst<strong>and</strong>ing the U.S. <strong>Nuclear</strong> <strong>Weapons</strong> Policy Debate,” The Washington Quarterly, July 2009, pp. 21-36; also Keith B. Payne, “Maintaining Flexible <strong>and</strong> Resilient Capabilities for <strong>Nuclear</strong> Deterrence,” Strategic Studies Quarterly, Summer 2011, pp. 13-29; <strong>and</strong> National Security Strategy, Washington, DC: The White House, May 2010. 56. 2010 NPR, p. iv; also see Obama Prague speech, April 5, 2009. 358
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Visit our website for other free pu
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***** Comments pertaining to this r
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6. Aspects of the Current Russian P
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21. Arms Control after START ......
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this incredible amount of destructi
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hundreds of U.S. weapons (a
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TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND <stron
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Security was an additional problem.
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embraced lessons learned from the 1
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I learned here of some of the deep
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CHAPTER 1 THE HISTORICAL CONTEXT Ri
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as just another kind of military op
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it, the Allies were unlikely to agr
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• Assets for future arms control
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ments are dissimilar. Whereas Europ
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CHAPTER 2 TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS
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ombs in Europe as strategic weapons
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experiences of war, in a less moral
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Strangelovian image for NAT
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II. 1953-1963. U.S. STRATEGIC SUPER
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• For what political purposes mig
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widely heralded move to flexible re
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clear sentiment for the Alliance <s
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Nevertheless, Germany underst<stron
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first in order to break up his forc
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saw Pact lines to interdict strateg
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The Democratic People’s Republic
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given release authority by the Sovi
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III. 1963-1967. EMERGING DOUBTS CON
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esponse: without it, the Allies wer
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ous arms control groups argue that
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Why Did NATO Keep
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France were equipped with nuclear w
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slowly changing deterrence ethos wa
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through widespread protests, openly
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although it decided that the remain
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e concealed by the regular annual <
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However, concerned by the post-Viet
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ously create a public and</
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ers have repeatedly reemphasized th
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judged to generate (but which may n
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5. “The position we have reached
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24. Marc Trachtenberg, A Constructe
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49. Catherine McArdle Kelleher, “
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76. Joseph F. Pilat and</st
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100. Corroborated by Catherine Kell
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CHAPTER 3 U.S. NUCLEAR WEAPONS POLI
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the North Atlantic Treaty Organizat
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delivery exercised a dominant influ
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conventional strength. 14 In the Pa
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the capability to employ such weapo
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ground-launched short-range nuclear
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curity policy in Asia, and<
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lies. 31 At the strategic a
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mediate postwar period. Washington
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ons throughout the Cold War <strong
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These shifts are the products both
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power and the prol
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7. Robert S. Norris et al., “Wher
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frey A. Larsen and
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near Central Europe and</st
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47. Available from armedservices.ho
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CHAPTER 4 RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVES ON T
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Russian Navy would be particularly
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ers to produce income from Russian
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3. These are the results of polls o
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TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND THE FE
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Russia’s anticipated spending of
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arms race was on, and</stro
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heads; and improve
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national security strategy. Current
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On April 23, 1999, Viktor Nikolaevi
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First of all, the word “obligatio
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By 2004, a young scholar, Aleksei F
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time, it seems to believe that, in
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ence as the chief factor that limit
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their modernization as a response.
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in areas affecting Russian national
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armed struggle at sea for the perio
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centric warfare. Citing both Chines
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tation to maintain security <strong
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PROSPECTS FOR A U.S.-RUSSIAN TREATY
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uild a missile defense system in so
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10. “Ktokhitree: Mir vstupil v er
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36. Sergei Karaganov “Global Zero
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CHAPTER 6 ASPECTS OF THE CURRENT RU
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NATO countries. Du
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allistic missile defense (BMD), <st
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Meanwhile, the factor of China (wit
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Today, in fact, only the nuclear um
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By the same logic, preventing a pot
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diminishes still further Russian in
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1989 —April 12 SHORT-RANGE NUCLEA
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where Russian interest is higher th
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6. Kozin, “Five obstacles.” 7.
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CHAPTER 7 INFLUENCES ON RUSSIAN POL
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general and its ow
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are show of unanimity from nearly a
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ally; it is just that others are ac
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to direct Russian toward multilater
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armor, like T-62 tanks and<
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Reducing Non-Strategic Nucl
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The Russian inventory has been redu
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Under present conditions, the range
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Ws should be multilateral, with the
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continue the practice of conducting
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the General Staff Nikolai Makarov o
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CHAPTER 8 RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVES ON N
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Yet these concerns are most likely
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Bush and Mikhail G
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anyone’s guess. As mentioned abov
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STRATEGY Russian NSNWs attracted in
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lored damage” (zadannyi ushcherb)
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intrigue pertaining to nuclear weap
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eaching political, military, <stron
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Inertia. The longer this position i
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In a similar vein, the Foreign Mini
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THE RUSSIAN NSNW POSITION: LIMITS A
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tated to what it calls an “integr
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ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 8 1. “Zayavlen
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13. The 12th Main Department of the
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PART III EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVES 227
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ope is illustrative of a more funda
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maintaining these weapons or their
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CHAPTER 10 THE ROLE AND PLACE OF TA
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positions, preoccupations,
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cohesion and solid
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ferred to by the now familiar term
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The second track is an effort to de
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The United States. The traditional
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the nuclear discussions apply only
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supported by other members. However
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cerning its nuclear posture. On the
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tial expert on the dangers of nucle
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8. This is reminiscent of the posit
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a London or Paris perspective, thei
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One of the most important factors w
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mer Vice-Chairman of the Joint Chie
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Armed Service Air and</stro
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Nunn in 2007 and 2
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that the debate on a nuclear-free w
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modify the Alliance’s nuclear pos
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years. Signs of progress include th
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on a modified CFE regime an
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9. See Miles A. Pomper, William Pot
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Paper, No. 7, Washington, DC: Arms
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eventual elimination are considered
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In the post-bipolar international s
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levels of enthusiasm, most European
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DIFFERING THREAT ASSESSMENTS AND AL
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troops in 2008 and
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that NATO as a who
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distinction between tactical <stron
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12. Author’s interview with a sen
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19. NATO’s argum
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31. Valasek, p. 24. 32. Lukasz Kule
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CHAPTER 13 EUROPE, NATO</st
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not reached a clear consensus on wh
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In an environment in which there is
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Page 342: PART IV AMERICAN PERSPECTIVES 321
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Page 393 and 394: ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 16 1. These are
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Page 422: PART V ARMS CONTROL AS AN OPTION 40
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posite discussion within the contex
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CHAPTER 19 ARMS CONTROL OPTIONS FOR
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U.S. AND RUSSIAN NON-STRATEGIC NUCL
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into the discussion is that it woul
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get missiles on NATO</stron
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ficials have announced a major 10-y
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the INF Treaty banned all INF missi
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Others have also suggested that tra
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ample of the latter, in 1991 Presid
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certain percentage, say 50 percent.
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heads. Nondeployed strategic warhea
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ily in Washington’s judgment, <st
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publican president is less clear at
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10. “Strategic Concept for the De
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CHAPTER 20 TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS
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Most of the attempted adaptation <s
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ight metric (and t
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weapons (NSNWs)? A look at the key
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other, has ever gained serious cons
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who occasionally address other thea
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most of the other parties. Russia
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security concerns and</stro
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objectives and out
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CHAPTER 21 ARMS CONTROL AFTER START
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withdrawal as part of a wider disen
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ience with the Anti-Ballistic Missi
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strengthening of first-strike stabi
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ons away from the territory of <str
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is the relationship between them th
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would have added credibility were i
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still making a substantial contribu
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tionship between transparency <stro
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NATO WILL SURVIVE
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As in the past, the most likely cau
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summit on the effective control of
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deployed to Europe to approximately
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NATO policymakers.
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One of the alliances, the Warsaw Pa
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Hungary, and Slova
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statement at the conclusion of the
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anti-ballistic missiles on Polish t
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Following the meeting of OSCE forei
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inform Russia of any significant ch
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are difficult to correlate complete
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West. President Obama noted such a
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ing agreements. It must also combin
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19. Ibid. 20. Lachowski, p. 5. 21.
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PART VI CONCLUSION 505
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that means. Today, this seems to be
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more prosaic level, the presence of
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fence and Foreign
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JEFFREY A. LARSEN is a Senior Scien
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GUY B. ROBERTS was until recently <
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
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