Tactical Nuclear Weapons and NATO.pdf - Program on Strategic ...

Government must ensure the continued safety <strong>and</strong> security
of its homel<strong>and</strong> <strong>and</strong> population against attack.
The question is whether extended deterrence, <strong>and</strong>
NSNW commitments to allies, can help achieve this
goal. Some would argue that making commitments to
overseas friends <strong>and</strong> allies against potential adversaries
actually makes the United States more susceptible
to threats, blackmail, or the risk of involvment in a
conflict.
Second, the United States wants to continue assuring
its allies of their security, maintain its alliances
around the world, <strong>and</strong> provide a stabilizing presence
where needed. But it must weigh those desiderata
against the possibility that anti-nuclear or even anti-
American attitudes could arise within allied societies
if it were to choose to retain or modernize its forwarddeployed
nuclear forces in Europe. On the other side
of the world, the United States faces the exact opposite
dilemma: allied concerns in East Asia may be raised by
a perceived diminution of U.S. guarantees, as evinced
by a lack of will or lack of the visible wherewithal
to provide extended deterrence. In either case, the
Obama administration faces the possibility of frustrating
key allied states in order to follow through on its
Prague vision <strong>and</strong> the NPR’s commitments. Moreover,
convincing allies of U.S. resolve may not be possible in
any case simply by pointing to existing capabilities. 50
Alliance cohesion is a fragile thing, <strong>and</strong> could be jeopardized
by U.S. missteps even on the level of nuance.
Third, the U.S. Government also wants to manage
change in the international system to avoid potential
downsides. Downsides might include a loss of global
influence, diminished security (particularly if rogue
states or nonstate actors become more empowered as
a result of diminished U.S. influence), or a loss of face
in the event our commitment to President Obama’s
347