Umstrittene Schweizer Sicherheitspolitik ... - ETH Zürich

Vladimir A. Orlov
namis. Similarly, we try to record the echoes of threats originating from
Europe as well as from places further away.
In other words, we are no longer talking about a new global war.
Though not completely impossible, its probability has become very,
very low.
Although the number of such threats and challenges has increased
dramatically, I have to put forward a word of warning – and of relief – a
word I try to remind myself of whenever I’m doing research and threat
analysis: there are threats as well as “threats”. Some threats are real; others
are exaggerated, if not simply invented. For this reason, one should always
be practical and analytical and avoid being scared. Some threats, though
they do have a certain basis, are exaggerated by those who may have an
interest in doing so as they benefit from an extension of the production
of what may be required to meet that threats, thus succeed in turning
the general public’s and the decision makers’ phobias into money. It is,
therefore, of vital importance to measure the size of a threat and to put
it into its context.
Let me now turn to the subject of my primary expertise, nuclear nonproliferation.
I will be brief, though I would be happy to go into more
details if you whish me to do so. Very much depends on how successful
the regime of nuclear non-proliferation will be in the foreseeable future.
A good message is that a cornerstone of the nuclear non-proliferation
regime, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), works. Signatory
states – Russia and Switzerland are among the active parties – have managed
to prevent proliferation of nuclear weapons and materials to dozens
of nations. Though some obvious suspects are keeping us busy, the number
of suspects and the number of areas of concern have, for quite some
time now, been limited. We have already done something with regard to
the reduction of nuclear weapons, though what we have achieved has been
very modest and does not meet the obligations taken by nuclear weapons
states under article 6 of NPT. In that sense, it is good news that the US
and Russia have decided to work seriously and result-oriented on a first
continuous reduction of strategic nuclear arms. If this initial step will
be successful, next year the US and Russia will start working on a more
dramatic and more complex reduction of nuclear weapons of strategic or
681