Umstrittene Schweizer Sicherheitspolitik ... - ETH Zürich

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Russian people are more crisis-resistant than many Europeans are
– with the exception of people in spoiled Russian metropolises,
though Russia is not limited to the city of Moscow. So, there may
be social problems; but we are, at least according to my analysis,
not to expect social unrest, confrontation, and coups d’état.
3. Iran cheated on us, as they cheated on you and many other European
countries. However, there is no way to stop Iran from enriching
uranium. Even air strikes by Israel are no way to do so. Such air
strikes would bring about the reverse: a sharpening of the conflict,
if not complete chaos. Russia wants to avoid any kind of military
action because military force would be completely counterproductive.
Therefore, we try to exert influence and send that message to
Israel, though it should come from the White House and, above all,
Capitol Hill. I’m not scared of Iran’s nuclear enrichment capabilities.
There are other countries such as Brazil and Japan. Japan, for
instance, according to our assessment, could start nuclear weapons
production within six to eight weeks if such a political decision was
taken. So what? The important thing is not to bring Iran to the
point of making political decisions about heavy nuclear weapons.
Therefore, what Russia tries to be involved in is to help create a
different climate in the region, so that Iran’s threat perception will
change. With the removal of Saddam Hussein, paradoxically, Iran
came to the decision not to further develop its nuclear weapons
option – not to close it, but to freeze it – because the main threat
was gone. Now, Iran’s main neighbour is the US – in Iraq on the
west, in Afghanistan on the east. In that sense, my talks a couple
of weeks ago with members of the Obama team – members of the
State Department in the White House – have been very productive.
I see much more willingness there to start a productive dialogue
on Iran, beginning maybe with minor issues, but then going on
to a change in threat perception. Such a dialogue, to be sure, is
not easy, but what Russia will and should support are multilateral
diplomacy and a bilateral dialogue between Iran and the US. We
are not jealous of the Americans being much more involved.