Umstrittene Schweizer Sicherheitspolitik ... - ETH Zürich

Ausland
regard to both non-state actors and states – be it Israel, Pakistan,
or North Korea.
Vez Jean-Luc: What is your assessment of the risk of the comeback of a
conventional war in Central Europe?
Orlov Vladimir A.: We are lessening the probability of a global nuclear
conflict, but the number of conventional arms in Europe is inadequately
high. One of my concerns is that we have failed to establish a conventional
arms forces treaty which meets the requirements of the current situation.
The adopted CFE treaty was, unfortunately, only ratified by Russia and
a couple of its neighbours and allies.
A part of the answer to your question depends on how we define
Europe. If we define Europe according to OCSE definitions, I would
first look at Central Asia – though that may not be the region you had in
mind. That is a region we should be very cautious about. Relationships
between nations in that region may shift to more cooperative modes,
but there is a relatively high risk that things are moving in the opposite
direction. When there are landmines on borders between neighbouring
states that is a sign of very high tensions. Especially fighting over water
or energy resources in a context of poverty may be a problem for us.
If we look at Europe proper and include the South Caucasus, than
I have to say that we had a war there less than a year ago. The situation
there was very tense. There are still NATO exercises in the zone of conflict,
which do not help. In the Balkans, not all problems have been solved.
However, I see the risk of a new war there as being quite low. If we look
at other parts of Europe which I have not mentioned, I don’t see any
significant risk of an open confrontation.
Schneeberger Roger: I read in today’s newspaper that the Taliban have
gained control of another region and that they are now only 100 kilometres
from Islamabad. How high do you think is the risk that they will
gain control of Pakistan?
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