PDF Dosyası - Ankara Üniversitesi Kitaplar Veritabanı

as a mobilizing force capable of challenging the status quo has grown.Turkey, long since divided över the role of islam in its own affairs, cannotremain unaffected by the fortunes of political islam in the ArabWorld.Significance for TurkeyThe regional context in vvhich Turkey must face future relations vvithits Arab neighbors is marked by lovv levels of political institutionalization,highly charged desires for modern armaments, and tenuous politicallegitimacy vvhich is increasingly challenged by Islamist political ideologies.Complicating the equation is the fact that the leading Arab states inevitablymust soon face leadership changes, if only because of their currentleaders' age. This is true of Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Jordan and others. Analready uncertain and problematical region vvill therefore soon undergosignifıcant changes that cannot be foreseen.At the same time, five specific issues—four of vvhich directly involveTurkey vvhile the fıfth could conceivably come to affect Turkey directly—continue to generate various degrees of tension and carry the potential oferupting into overt conflict. The four issues in vvhich Turkey is directlyinvolved are: Turkey's traditionally strained relations vvith Syria över theHatay/Alexandretta region; Turkey's struggle against Kurdish separatism;Turkey's development of the southern Anatolian region and the ensuingreduction of vvater resources available to Syria and Iraq; Turkey's currentintervention against Kurdish forces in northern Iraq. The fıfth issue that,as demonstrated by the 1990-91 Gulf crisis, has the potential of involvingTurkey in a general regional upheaval, is the stili unresolved Arab-Israeliproblem.It is clear that Turkey's most immediate problems vvith the ArabWorld are linked to its relations vvith Syria and Iraq. While a change ofregime in Baghdad might easily lead to a cessation of Turkism militaryactivity in northern Iraq as vvell as to a restoration of productive ties betvveenTurkey and Iraq (based largely on both countries economic needsand shared dislike of Kurdish nationalism) 5 , any radical improvement inrelations vvith Syria is apt to require far more time and be more problematical.Turkey's massive development scheme for southeastern Anatoliahas caused frictions vvith both Syria and Iraq but Ankara's apparent vvillingnessto ensure suffıcient supplies of vvater to both countries has containedthese. As Syria and Iraq's need vvater requirements increase in the5. Turkey's purchases of Iraqi oil and Iraq's reliance on pipelines through Turkish territoryfor exporting part of its oil are only one aspect of economic links between thetvvo countries that have been disnıpted since the 1990-91 Gulf War. Prior to that conflictTurkey and Iraq also benefited from the formers role as the bridge for overlandmovement between Europe and the Gulf area.598