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Forecasting the Consumer Price Index in Malaysia
Using the Box-Jenkins Methods
Muhammad Harrisuddin Bin Sarpan
Supervisor: Dr. Nurfahdlina Binti Abdul Halim
Bachelor of Science (Financial Mathematics)
School of Informatics and Applied Mathematics
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an index value that capable of providing an overview
of the current economic performance of a region. Box-Jenkins method that is quite
popular in forecasting is applied in this study to predict the value of the country's CPI in
the future. With this CPI forecasting value, the government can provide a better economic
planning for the country. The main aim of this study is to predict the country's CPI value
for 2017 by applying the Box-Jenkins method. The data used are derived from the official
portal of the Department of Statistics, Malaysia from 1970-2017. With the analysis done,
the SARIMA (2, 1, 1) 12 model is seen as the best model that can be used to predict the
CPI value for 2017. The MAPE value which is 3.29 shows that the forecasting value
obtained is acceptable.
826 | UMT UNDERGRADUATE RESEARCH DAY 2018