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Application of Grey Model in Gross Domestic Product<br />

Nabila Fudzha Binti Mahfudz<br />

Supervisor: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Norizan Binti Mohamed<br />

Bachelor of Science (Computational Mathematics)<br />

School of Informatics and Applied Mathematics<br />

Grey theoretical model GM (1,1) is one of the model system that analyse mathematical<br />

system with less complete data or incomplete information and associated with time series.<br />

This study aims to apply Grey Model in country economic forecast which is in Malaysia.<br />

It was applied on Gross Domestic Product. Gross Domestic Product is a value of goods<br />

and services produced by all factors within a country for a period of one year. The data<br />

used is the country account data obtained from the website of Department of Statistics<br />

in Malaysia which is from year 1959 to 2016. Means Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is<br />

used to measure the accuracy of every forecasting. Different sample size will influence<br />

the forecasting and determine the value of MAPE. Based on this study, the results showed<br />

that the sample data size affects the resulting value and the accuracy of predicted value<br />

depends on the value of MAPE.<br />

956 | UMT UNDERGRADUATE RESEARCH DAY 2018

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