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Application of Grey Model GM (1,1) on Electricity Energy Consumption Data
Nurul Alwani Binti Mohd Afifi
Supervisor: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Norizan Binti Mohamed
Bachelor of Science (Financial Mathematics)
School of Informatics and Applied Mathematics
Electricity energy consumption (EEC) known as a vital driver of economic development
and an indispensable part of people’s daily activities. Thus, an accurate electricity
consumption prediction is needed to mirror the developmental level of economy in a
country. Grey Modelling, GM (1,1) is one of the forecasting techniques which has been
proved successful in prediction. GM (1,1) does not need any prior knowledge and it can
be used when the amount of input data is limited. In this study, the data of total electricity
energy consumption that is obtained from Department of Statistic Malaysia is applied on
Grey Modelling (1,1). The purpose of this study is to test the accuracy of the model by
using different sample sizes. The evaluation of modeling accuracy is determined by
statistical indicators namely APE (Absolute Percentage Error), MAPE (Mean Absolute
Percentage Error) and RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error). Based on the studies conducted,
small sample sizes indicate highly forecasting level.
874 | UMT UNDERGRADUATE RESEARCH DAY 2018